Le fond de l'air électoral est frais au Brésil

Paulo Rabello de Castro, économiste issu de l'université de Chicago et l'un des penseurs les plus spirituels du Brésil, a qualifié les élections présidentielles d'octobre de choix entre “plus de la même chose” et “la même chose sans plus.” Nous sommes à des années lumières des émotions fortes que les élections présidentielles suscitent généralement dans les pays en voie de développement.

L'ironie de Rabello de Castro est pertinente, car il est difficile de dire lequel des candidats incarne “plus de la même chose” : le président sortant Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, candidat à sa propre succession et qui semble le mieux placé d'après les sondages, ou l'ancien gouverneur de São Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin, du PSDB (Parti social démocrate brésilien, au pouvoir pendant huit ans avant Lula, avec Fernando Henrique Cardoso comme président). En fait la distinction est si difficile à faire que dans une récente interview, Cardoso lui-même a dit que le projet du parti des travailleurs de Lula (PT) était le projet du PSDB. Il a ajouté : “Peut-être n'y en a-t-il pas d'autre. L'histoire ne produit pas toujours de nouveaux projets.”

Cardoso a raison. Mis à part la rhétorique politique purement pratique de dirigeants comme Hugo Chávez au Venezuela et Evo Morales en Bolivie, le marché électoral mondial n'a pas grand-chose à offrir qui soit très différent de ce que l'on appelle généralement le néo-libéralisme ou le consensus de Washington. En d'autres termes, il n'y a plus de bataille entre différents projets dans aucun pays moderne, pas de clivage droite-gauche (avec les nuances que cela implique) capable de susciter l'émotion des électeurs. De ce point de vue, le Brésil ne se distingue pas du Royaume-Uni, de l'Espagne ou de l'Uruguay.

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