Ein afghanisches Afghanistan

NEU DELHI – Afghanistan bereitet sich derzeit auf die bevorstehenden Präsidentenwahlen vor und befindet sich dadurch an einem weiteren kritischen Punkt, da die Einheit und territoriale Integrität des Landes nach 35 Jahren des erbarmungslosen Krieges auf dem Spiel steht.  Kann Afghanistan nach über dreißig Jahren nun endlich dem Kreislauf aus Militanz und ausländischen Interventionen entkommen?

Zwei Schlüsselfragen prägen die Diskussion über Afghanistans Kurs nach 2014. Die erste betrifft das Ausmaß, zu welchem sich Pakistan in afghanische Angelegenheiten einmischen wird, wie etwa durch Hilfe und Unterstützung für die afghanischen Taliban und ihre wichtigsten Verbündeten wie das Haqqani-Netzwerk und die Miliz von Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. Dies wird davon abhängen, ob die Vereinigten Staaten ihre großzügige Hilfe an das finanzschwache  Pakistan an die Bedingung der Nichteinmischung in Afghanistan knüpfen.

Die zweite Frage lautet, ob die von den USA angeführten NATO-Truppen weiterhin irgendeine Rolle in Afghanistan spielen werden. Es ist kein Geheimnis, dass US-Präsident Barack Obama die amerikanische Militärpräsenz beibehalten möchte – im Gegensatz zu seiner Erklärung aus dem Jahr 2009, wonach die USA keinerlei Militärbasen in Afghanistan anstreben würden.

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