一个阿富汗人的阿富汗

新德里—在即将迎来总统大选之际,阿富汗再一次面临关键时刻,在经历了35年的残酷战争后,它的统一和领土完整正处于紧要关头。阿富汗人能够最终摆脱困扰了他三十多年的交战和外国干预循环吗?

两大关键问题左右着2014年之后阿富汗的走势。第一个问题是巴基斯坦会在多大程度上干扰阿富汗事务,比如支持和教唆阿富汗塔利班及其盟友哈卡尼(Haqqani)网络和希克马蒂亚尔(Gulbuddin Hekmatyar)义勇军等。这将取决于美国是否会用慷慨援助为条件换取急需现金的阿富汗人不干预阿富汗。

第二个问题是以美国为首的北约军队是否会继续在阿富汗起作用。美国总统奥巴马希望美军继续留在阿富汗早已不是秘密——这与他2009年宣布美国不寻求在阿富汗保留军事基地的说法相反。

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