Politics

一个阿富汗人的阿富汗

Mar 29, 2014 Brahma Chellaney

新德里—在即将迎来总统大选之际，阿富汗再一次面临关键时刻，在经历了35年的残酷战争后，它的统一和领土完整正处于紧要关头。阿富汗人能够最终摆脱困扰了他三十多年的交战和外国干预循环吗？

两大关键问题左右着2014年之后阿富汗的走势。第一个问题是巴基斯坦会在多大程度上干扰阿富汗事务，比如支持和教唆阿富汗塔利班及其盟友哈卡尼（Haqqani）网络和希克马蒂亚尔（Gulbuddin Hekmatyar）义勇军等。这将取决于美国是否会用慷慨援助为条件换取急需现金的阿富汗人不干预阿富汗。

第二个问题是以美国为首的北约军队是否会继续在阿富汗起作用。美国总统奥巴马希望美军继续留在阿富汗早已不是秘密——这与他2009年宣布美国不寻求在阿富汗保留军事基地的说法相反。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 4 Comments on this article

j. von Hettlingen Apr 4, 2014

Mr. Brahma Chellaney asks, "the extent to which Pakistan will interfere in Afghan affairs", given its support to the "Afghan Taliban and its main allies". Buth he hasn't aksed what role India is going to play in Afghanistan, which, for decades, has been the venue of a new "Great Game" played out between the two archenemies India and Pakistan, seeking to gain influence there.
It is no secret that Pakistan's intelligence, the ISI combats only its home-grown militants of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, who seek to overthrow the government in Islamabad, while supporting groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba that had launched attacks on India and the Haqqani network et al. that focuses on fighting the Nato forces in Afghanistan. The Taliban fighters and Islamist militants enjoy safe haven in the tribal areas of North and South Waziristan, which had in the past been targets of CIA drone strikes. Apart from the Kashmir conflict, Islamabad also accuses India of funnelling arms and money to insurgents in Pakistan's troubled Balochistan region.
After the fall of the Taliban in 2001, following a US invasion, India moved quickly to regain its strategic depth and clout in Afghanistan, by pledging $1.6 billion to help rebuild the country, making it the sixth largest bilateral donor. Moreover India had also given at least three Airbus planes to Afghanistan's ailing national airline and sent thousands of Indians to work in development projects.
India's soft-power strategy has been to win the hearts and minds of the Afghans over every sector of the society, which should allow India to gain political advantage and to undercut Pakistan's influence. India's success in Afghanistan stirred up a hornets' nest in Islamabad. That Afghan President Hamid Karzai had lived and studied in India, prompted former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to openly accuse Karzai of kow-towing to India.
The question is whether Karzai's successor would continue to cultivate ties with India. Some in Afghanistan haven't forgotten that India had been a staunch ally of the Soviet Union during the Cold war and had supported Moscow's invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. A decade later, India continued to back the Communist-regime of President Najibullah, while Pakistan threw its entire support behind the ethnic Pashtun mujahideen warlords, particularly the Islamist Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who were fighting Soviet troops. So when the Taliban came to power and ended the bloody civil conflict among warlords, India was left without any influence in the country. It ended up backing the Northern Alliance. Pakistan, on the other hand, backed and recognised the pariah Taliban regime.
The coming presidential election will be a tight race and many Afghans hope that the new president would sign the Bilateral Security Agreement with Washington. It is not right for Mr. Challaney to say that "Obama failed to persuade" Hamid Karzai, to sign the agreement. The mercurial Karzai was the one, who played game with his own country's future.
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Harsh Ray Apr 1, 2014

Foreign military intervention has made a bad situation worse. Afghanistan stands devastated. Shouldn't this country be allowed to look after its own affairs under an international compact that halts all outside interference, including by the US, NATO and regional powers?
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Velko Simeonov Mar 31, 2014

There is no "Afghan" Afghanistan, as there is no Afghanistan as an actual country. There is simply a territory that is not claimed by any actual country, inhabited by tribes which might have much in common but do not share a sense of common ethnical background, history or even religious practices even though they are all Muslims. The idea that something at least resembling a normal country will emerge out of that territory is absurd. Most of the government officials cannot even venture out of their offices without dense security. The moment NATO withdraws any small gains that might be identified at present will be eliminated. Even if the US retains forces and bases there, they will be no more able than the Russians to sustain the illusion that there is an actual, credible in international terms government.
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Velko Simeonov Mar 31, 2014

There is no "Afghan" Afghanistan, as there is no Afghanistan as an actual country. There is simply a territory that is not claimed by any actual country, inhabited by tribes which might have much in common but do not share a sense of common ethnical background, history or even religious practices even though they are all Muslims. The idea that something at least resembling a normal country will emerge out of that territory is absurd. Most of the government officials cannot even venture out of their offices without dense security. The moment NATO withdraws any small gains that might be identified at present will be eliminated. Even if the US retains forces and bases there, they will be no more able than the Russians to sustain the illusion that there is an actual, credible in international terms government.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

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一个阿富汗人的阿富汗

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