日本的奥巴马问题

东京—当日本首相安倍晋三拜访存在争议的东京靖国神社时,中国领导人如意料之中谴责安倍瞻仰“侵华战争”背后的人。但安倍也在向日本的主要盟友和保护人美国释放信号。美国总统奥巴马不愿意挑战中国在亚洲的耀武扬威和领土野心——近期日本和美国在中国新划定的防空识别区问题上的反差就是明证——这让越来越焦急的安倍被迫通知两国,克制不可能是单方面的。

对中国和韩国来说,供奉14名在二战后被处死的甲级战犯的靖国神社是日本战前军国主义的化身,安倍一直没有访问靖国神社,包括在他第一次担任首相期间。如果中国不划定防空识别区——这是一个不祥的预兆,侵占了东海上空非中方控制区域的国际空域——安倍也许将继续保持原来的立场。(安倍应该没有考虑他参拜靖国神社最终会加深韩国对日本的敌意、从而有利于中国的可能性。)

奥巴马政府一直在敦促安倍不要因为参拜靖国神社加剧地区紧张——副总统拜登在访问北京之旅中特意经停东京,重申这一要求。事实上,拜登之旅加深了日本的安全担心,因为这强调了美国重在平衡其在东亚的关系,即使这意味着容忍扩张主义的中国,把它视为与盟友日本一样重要的战略考虑点。

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