Dollar-Wette

Je mehr Zeit vergeht, ohne dass der Wert des Dollars deutlich fällt oder die Marktkräfte Amerikas Leistungsbilanzdefizit – das in diesem Jahr durchaus eine Billion Dollar erreichen könnte – zum Schrumpfen bringen, desto deutlicher bilden sich zwei einander diametral entgegengesetzte Reaktionen aus. Die meisten internationalen Finanzwirtschaftler haben zunehmend Angst vor einem Ausbruch einer größeren internationalen Finanzkrise. Tatsächlich fürchten sie, dass das Ausmaß dieser potenziellen Krise größer und größer wird.

Andere – insbesondere die Verwalter von Kapitalanlagen – gelangen immer mehr zu der Überzeugung, dass die Ökonomen nicht besonders gut Bescheid wissen und dass das, was sie wissen, für Trader wie sie selbst nutzlos ist. Sie sehen wenig Grund zu der Annahme, dass die aktuellen Anlagewerte und Handelsströme nicht langfristig aufrechtzuerhalten sein sollten.

Schließlich, so argumentieren sie (oder zumindest einige von ihnen), wachse das reale BIP der USA jährlich um 400 Milliarden Dollar, von denen etwa 270 Milliarden Dollar auf Arbeit und 130 Milliarden Dollar auf Kapital entfallen. Selbst unter Berücksichtigung der Geldentwertung seien diese 130 Milliarden Dollar zusätzlichen Einkommens in ein Vermögen von etwa 1,5 Billionen Dollar umzurechnen; daher sei selbst ein Leistungsbilanzdefizit von einer Billion Dollar nicht allzu groß. Die Amerikaner könnten zwei Drittel des Wertzuwachses ihres Vermögens zur Finanzierung ihrer Importe ausgeben und hätten trotzdem in diesem Jahr 500 Milliarden Dollar mehr als im Vorjahr.

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