Le dollar est une mauvaise affaire

A mesure que le temps passe, sans baisse significative du dollar, ni réduction par le marché du déficit de la balance courante américaine – qui pourrait bien atteindre un billion cette année – on constate l’émergence de deux tendances diamétralement opposées. Certains, comme la plupart des économistes spécialistes de la finance internationale, craignent l’éruption d’une crise majeure. Ils ont le sentiment que l’ampleur de cette crise potentielle ne fait qu’augmenter.

D’autres – en particulier les gestionnaires de portefeuilles financiers – sont de plus en plus convaincus que les économistes n’y connaissent pas grand-chose, ou que c’est sans importance. Ils ne voient pas pourquoi la situation n’est pas viable.

Après tout, affirment-ils, le PIB réel des Etats-Unis augmente de 400 milliards de dollars par an, soit environ 270 milliards pour le travail et 130 milliards pour le capital. Même après dépréciation, ce revenu annuel supplémentaire de 130 milliards de dollars est capitalisé à environ 1,5 billion de dollars. Le déficit – même à un billion de dollars - ne semble donc pas démesuré. En liquidant les deux tiers de l’accroissement de notre richesse pour financer des importations, il nous resterait encore 500 milliards de plus que l’année précédente.

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