大脱钩

巴黎—自2012年下半年以来,全世界金融市场强势复苏。事实上,在美国,道琼斯工业平均指数在3月初创出史上新高,自去年9月一阿莱上涨近9%。在欧洲,欧洲央行行长德拉吉的“八月火力”(guns of August)也相当强劲。德拉吉承诺潜在的无限量购买成员国国债,这扭转了欧元的颓势。9月1日至2月22日,FTSEruofirst指数上涨近7%。亚洲金融市场自去年9月以来也有所上涨,特别是日本。

就连2月末的意大利选举也没有给市场带来多大不安(至少到目前为止是如此)。尽管意大利和西班牙十年期债券相对德国的利差在结果公布后扩大了30—50个基点,但随后减小至300—350个基点,而在欧洲央行的“直接货币交易”计划决定之前,利差高达500—600个基点。

但金融市场的欢腾与政治和实体经济指标并不相符。在美国,2012年的经济表现只是略有好转,GDP增长率从2011年的1.8%增至2.3%。失业率仍然很高,2012年末水平为7.8%,且过去数年来真实工资几无增长。美国的中位家庭收入低于2007年水平——事实上,与20年前的水平差不多——危机前美国收入增长总值的约九成落入了最顶端1%家庭的腰包。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/SUuMCZV/zh;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now