大脱钩

巴黎—自2012年下半年以来,全世界金融市场强势复苏。事实上,在美国,道琼斯工业平均指数在3月初创出史上新高,自去年9月一阿莱上涨近9%。在欧洲,欧洲央行行长德拉吉的“八月火力”(guns of August)也相当强劲。德拉吉承诺潜在的无限量购买成员国国债,这扭转了欧元的颓势。9月1日至2月22日,FTSEruofirst指数上涨近7%。亚洲金融市场自去年9月以来也有所上涨,特别是日本。

就连2月末的意大利选举也没有给市场带来多大不安(至少到目前为止是如此)。尽管意大利和西班牙十年期债券相对德国的利差在结果公布后扩大了30—50个基点,但随后减小至300—350个基点,而在欧洲央行的“直接货币交易”计划决定之前,利差高达500—600个基点。

但金融市场的欢腾与政治和实体经济指标并不相符。在美国,2012年的经济表现只是略有好转,GDP增长率从2011年的1.8%增至2.3%。失业率仍然很高,2012年末水平为7.8%,且过去数年来真实工资几无增长。美国的中位家庭收入低于2007年水平——事实上,与20年前的水平差不多——危机前美国收入增长总值的约九成落入了最顶端1%家庭的腰包。

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