USA factory worker manufacturing Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Los riesgos del auge económico para Estados Unidos

CAMBRIDGE – Tras una larga y lenta recuperación de la recesión que comenzó hace una década, hoy la economía de Estados Unidos está en auge. El mercado de trabajo está en pleno empleo, la tasa de inflación está aumentando y los hogares tienen una actitud de optimismo. Las empresas manufactureras y las constructoras se están beneficiando de una actividad cada vez mayor. La economía apunta a un crecimiento más intenso en el próximo año. Ya no se escuchan preocupaciones sobre un estancamiento secular.

La tasa de desempleo general es de solo 4,7%, mientras que el desempleo entre los graduados universitarios es solo del 2,4%. Las ganancias por hora promedio son 2,8% más altas que hace un año. El ajustado mercado de trabajo y el aumento de los salarios están induciendo a algunas personas que habían dejado de buscar empleo a regresar a la fuerza de trabajo, elevando así el índice de participación.

Una señal clara de que la economía está en pleno empleo es el aumento de la tasa de inflación. El índice "básico" de precios al consumidor (que omite la volatilidad de los precios de la energía y los alimentos) ha alcanzado una tasa anual del 2,2%, sustancialmente superior al promedio de 1,8% durante los tres años anteriores. Durante los últimos tres meses, la inflación básica aumentó a una tasa anual del 2,8%.

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