USA factory worker manufacturing Spencer Platt/Getty Images

美国经济繁荣背后的风险

坎布里奇—在经历了漫长而缓慢的从十年前开始的衰退中的复苏之后,目前美国经济正在繁荣。劳动力市场实现了充分就业,通货膨胀率上升,家庭态度乐观。制造业企业和建筑商从经济活动的活跃中获益。明年经济预计能够实现更加强劲的增长。我们不再听到有人担心长期停滞。

总体失业率只有4.7%,而大学毕业生失业率更是低至2.4%。平均时薪比一年前提高了2.8%。趋紧的劳动力市场和上涨的工资使得一些此前放弃寻找工作的人再次加入劳动力大军,从而刺激了劳动参与率。

一个经济处于充分就业状态的明确信号是通胀率正在上升。“核心”消费物价指数(不含波动较大的能源和食品价格)达到了2.2%的年率,显著高于此前三年1.8%的平均水平。在最近三个月中,核心通胀以2.8%的年率上涨。

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