Jak děsivý je trh s dluhopisy?

NEW HAVEN – Ceny dlouhodobých státních dluhopisů se v posledních letech držely velmi vysoko (a tím pádem byly jejich výnosy velice nízké). Ve Spojených státech dosáhl 30. ledna 30letý Treasury bond rekordně nízkého výnosu (od doby počátku Federálních Rezerv v roce 1972) v hodnotě 2,25%. Výnos 30letého vládního dluhopisu ve Velké Británii se ve stejný den propadl na 2,04%. Japonský 20letý vládní dluhopis byl k 20. lednu na pouhých 0,87% výnosu.

Všechny tyto výnosy sice od té doby nepatrně stouply, pořád ale zůstávají výjimečně nízké. Zdá se to nepochopitelné a neudržitelné, aby lidé svazovali své investice na 20 až 30 let s vidinou výdělku málo anebo vůbec nepřesahujícím 2% roční inflace, která jsou obvyklou sazbou centrálních bank. Mnozí se tudíž ptají, s ohledem na zralost trhu s dluhopisy na zásadní korekci, jestli by případné zhroucení dluhopisového trhu nemohlo oslabit také další dlouhodobá aktiva, jako například trh s bydlením či kapitálové trhy.

Je to otázka, která je mi opakovaně kladena na seminářích a konferencích. Koneckonců, ceny na trzích s bydlením a kapitálem jsou určovány s ohledem na ceny na trhu s dluhopisy, tudíž nákaza jednoho trhu s dlouhodobými investicemi od druhého se jeví jako reálná možnost.

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