Paul Lachine

La incidencia global en la reforma anticorrupción de China

STANFORD – El reciente juicio de Bo Xilai resaltó el mayor desafío que enfrenta China hoy: la corrupción y el abuso de poder de algunos funcionarios del gobierno y del partido. Hasta su caída, Bo, un ex miembro del Politburó y líder del partido en Chongqing, una mega-ciudad de 30 millones de habitantes, era un potencial candidato para ser uno de los siete miembros que integran el gobernante Comité Permanente del Politburó de China.

El juicio de Bo se produjo en un momento crucial para China. Millones de chinos de las zonas rurales invaden año tras año las ciudades del país en busca de empleo. Pero el crecimiento de China impulsado por las exportaciones, que antes sirvió para ocultar los costos macroeconómicos de la corrupción y la excesiva intervención estatal, se está desacelerando. En un momento en que China entra en una era de crecimiento más apagado en medio de una mayor competencia por parte de otros países de bajos costos, este daño se volverá cada vez más notorio -y cada vez más destructivo.

Hay más probabilidades de que China sea estable y geopolíticamente constructiva si es económicamente exitosa. Una China agobiada por graves problemas económicos no lo sería tanto y, por ser la primera economía en desarrollo de la historia en volverse una potencial global, podría incluso convertirse en una fuente de riesgo sistémico. La línea de montaje china está integrada a las cadenas de suministro globales para muchos productos. Es más, China es el mayor tenedor de títulos del Tesoro de Estados Unidos (además de la Reserva Federal), tiene tenencias en euros importantes, probablemente pronto se convierta en el principal socio comercial de Estados Unidos y se avizora que su relación comercial con muchas economías europeas y asiáticas será importante.

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