Paul Lachine

中国反腐改革的全球借鉴

斯坦福—最近,对薄熙来的庭审凸显出当代中国面临的最大挑战:某些党和政府官员的腐败和权力滥用。倒台前,薄熙来是政治局委员、重庆(有3000万人口的超级大都市)市委书记,也是中共中央政治局七常委的潜在人选之一。

薄熙来的庭审发生于中国的关键时刻。在中国,每年有数百万农村人口涌向城市寻找工作;但中国的出口导向型增长——此前掩盖了腐败和国家过度干预的宏观经济成本——正在减速。随着来自其他低成本国家的竞争日益激烈,中国进入了增长较低时期,这一伤害也将变得日益明显和具有破坏性。

经济成功的中国可以起到稳定作用,为地缘政治贡献建设性力量;而遇到严重经济问题的中国则会适得其反,且作为首个成为全球强国的发展中经济体,它遇到严重经济问题将引致系统性风险。中国的制造装配线是全球众多产品供应链的一环。此外,中国是美国国债最大的持有者(除美联储之外),也持有巨量欧元,极有可能马上成为美国最大贸易伙伴,同时也是许多欧洲和亚洲经济体的贸易伙伴。

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