Tim Brinton

Un mundo de cisnes negros

BERLIN – En la crisis financiera actual, la imagen de un cisne negro ha pasado a ser un símbolo para lo que, pese a parecer imposible, llega a suceder de algún modo y deja el mundo patas arriba. Este año va a brindarnos amplia oportunidad de examinar los cisnes negros que ya se encuentran entre nosotros y prepararnos para la llegada de otras más.

En noviembre, por ejemplo, se cumplirá el vigésimo aniversario de la caída del Muro de Berlín. La noche del 9 de noviembre de 1989 señaló el comienzo del fin de la Unión Soviética y su imperio y, por tanto, también del mundo bipolar que durante cinco decenios había dividido a Alemania y a Europa. Un año antes, pocas personas consideraban aquel acontecimiento que sacudió el mundo una posibilidad siquiera remota y, sin embargo, sucedió y el mundo cambió casi de la noche a la mañana.

Después de la desaparición de la Unión Soviética y del orden mundial bipolar, el victorioso capitalismo occidental, bajo la dirección de la única potencia mundial, los Estados Unidos, imperó en la política mundial y más aún en la economía mundial. Nada ni nadie podía frenar el triunfo mundial del mercado, que transcendía todos los límites anteriores de la riqueza, es decir, hasta el 15 de septiembre de 2008, la fatídica fecha en que Lehman Brothers quebró y comenzó el desplome del sistema financiero mundial.

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