气候政策陷阱

罗马——今天应对气候变化的政策成本远远高于它所产生的效益。不幸的是,错误的政治选择往往令政策效益进一步恶化。

比方说欧盟的20-20政策,旨在实现2020年二氧化碳排放低于1990年20%的目标。考量上述策略是否可行非常重要,不仅因为欧盟执行的是全世界涉及面最广、最雄心勃勃的气候政策,还因为其他气候政策也有着相似的缺陷。

实现20%目标成本最低、效率最高的方法莫过于建立统一的欧盟碳市场,欧盟到2020年年均需耗费约960亿美元来实现这一目标。但这一策略的全球效益却要低得多。事实上,欧盟气候政策唯一一次同行评估概述预测它每年可以避免约1000亿美元的气候损失。因此,每1美元投入,欧盟可以避免10美分的损失。

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