Average USD market price across major bitcoin exchanges

加密愚人金？

Oct 9, 2017 Kenneth Rogoff

坎布里奇—加密货币比特币是当今世上最大的泡沫，还是押注于尖端新金融技术的伟达投资？我的最佳猜测是，从长期看，这项技术会繁荣，但比特币价格也会崩溃。

如果你还不了解比特币的故事的话，它是这样的：比特币价格在过去12个月里上涨了600%，在过去24个月里上涨了1,600% 。如今，这种虚拟货币每个单位价格超过4,200美元（10月5日价格），是一盎司黄金价格的三倍多。一些比特币拥趸认为它还会在未来几年大幅上涨。

到底会怎样，在很大程度上取决于政府怎么做。政府会容忍方便避税和犯罪的匿名支付系统吗？政府会创造自己的数字货币吗？另一个关键问题是比特币的众多“另类货币”竞争对手们能够在多大呈上渗透这个市场。

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Kenneth Rogoff

Writing for PS since 2002
239 Commentaries

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. He is co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton University Press, 2011) and author of The Curse of Cash (Princeton University Press, 2016).

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 32 Comments on this article

I C Feb 4, 2018

Wouldn't a government be easily capable of controlling the currency by having the 51% of the computing capacity? Also, by deciding on ana accepted fork of a given crypto-currency, and deciding on technical aspects of how does it operate (e.g., time related), a government could have a great indirect control over it.
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R.P. Eddy Oct 31, 2017

In general I find this article clear in it's belief that that gov't will staunch Bitcoin/Crypto. I don't see any evidence of the U.S. headed there... yet. Rogoff offers only precedent, which is not-nothing.
One key detail about why crypto is so attractive, and I think may reveal a lack of basic understanding by Rogoff on how crypto works is this quote, "Even though Bitcoin transactions require an exorbitant amount of electricity, with some improvements, Bitcoin might still beat the 2% fees the big banks charge on credit and debit cards."
That's patently wrong.
Bitcoin transactions require as much electricity and cost as much as it does for me to post this comment: basically none. MINING bitcoin, a wholly different operation that only happens one time per coin does consume a ton of electricity. That coin can then be transacted limitless times at ZERO cost.
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rc whalen Oct 17, 2017

Ken Rogoff is entirely right on the long term fate of bitcoin, but like many observers places too much value on the ersatz blockchain technology. The only real use for blockchain is bitcoin. It is an entirely inefficient technology by design that really is just a form of encryption. There is no magic here. The vast amounts of time and money wasted on blockchain will rival the sad misallocation of resources on bitcoin.
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john mesrobian Oct 15, 2017

It is a massive bubble which could go higher but like the Great Tulip bubble it will crash and wipe out. Also, I question the sound backing of the Bitcoin and other Crypto currencies, not backed by anything of value such as Gold.

Many people have seen their Crypto Currencies disappear or accounts frozen by hacks or exchanges closing down.

As respects to Ken Rogoff and his push for Cashless society, forget it Ken, not going too happen for so many reasons.
- fscadut Oct 17, 2017
  
  And what thing of value is backing the US dollar? You compare things of value to Gold so you must mean value is something you can touch, feel, and use. So tell me, what valuable thing has backed the US Dollar since 1971, when Nixon took us off the gold standard??
  - Anatolii Papenko Nov 7, 2017
    
    Let's go even deeper into this question. What is backing gold? Do you need gold so much so you're ready to pay such high prices for it? Gold's price is also a bubble, just maybe not that big as bitcoin.
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Kudakwashe Kanhutu Oct 13, 2017

If you can tell me how I can take my Bitcoins from the cyber universe where they will exist, and buy a house in this physical world where I exist, you will have sold me on to the idea of this alleged currency.
- Christopher williams Oct 15, 2017
  
  So, if you have BTC now, you presumably bought them through an exchange; the same exchange quotes a price at all hours of the day and night for you to sell out the amount you need for your house - and have that paid into your bank account. Of course, there will be a time when the house seller will want to take BTCs, rather than your fiat currency, but whilst you will hear of such events now, they are very rare for large amounts.
  However, if you were buying a Lego version, or buying groceries, or whatever lower cost items, you will find an increasing number of merchants happy to price in BTCs.
  I hope that helps - but just by the way, your BTC is worth about 20% more than it was a few days ago, so you only need to pay 80% of the price you thought for the house!!
  - John Ellis Oct 15, 2017
    
    A bit like the famous tulips then? Bitcoin is not a store of value, it's currently a speculative vehicle and a means of conducting covert transactions.
    - Christopher williams Oct 15, 2017
      
      Or maybe like this web thingy that people talk about? Who ever heard of buying goods on line, when there are perfectly good shops down the High Street?
      Let's just agree to differ for now .. we will see if the blockchain with all its capability can change any minds as to what is a store of value or any other facet of financial operations.
      - John Ellis Oct 15, 2017
        
        Not talking about blockchain but specifically about Bitcoin. I note you don't specifically refute my points but introduce essentially the non sequitur of on-line retail.
        
        Harry Arm Dec 19, 2017
        
        You don't make any point. "it's currently a speculative vehicle and a means of conducting covert transactions." Although it may be a speculative vehicle for many who just want to "Get rich" (The american dream after all) it is used worldwide for transaction of all sorts. USA only accounts for 25% of those transactions. As for "covert transactions", the blockchain records every transaction. It is there for all to see. https://blockchain.info/
        
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Christopher williams Oct 12, 2017

I recognize the concern regarding Bitcoin, based primarily on its early developers who looked at it as a way to breach rules, aid illegal trading and clock a snook at the authorities. It's a shame, but it wont be the last time this sort of thing happens - the development of ecommerce in the 80's and 90's was quite similar.
But we got through that; it took a sharp pull-back to achieve it but we now have a multi-trillion dollar market working too well. The concern now is that its efficiency is wrecking the traditional shopping pattern at malls an corner shops, through providing better, faster, cheaper service with well-trained operatives standing by to correct any weakness in the chain.
Blockchain is showing how it can do the same for banking (actually for much more than banking; really in all matters of finance, but let's concentrate on just the payments space for now).
The ability is there for international transfers, such as family remittances, to go through in real time at a fraction of current costs, i.e. down below the SDG 2030 target of 3% from today's 7,4% average, with full control on KYC, AML and all connected data for law enforcement - so, the most compliant and secure format to date, beating out the legacy systems of SWIFT and the banks which have increasing problems with breaches of data and loss of large sums of money.
But here is what every economist, every government official, every regulator and, yes, every citizen of the most needy countries in the world can want to see; this can all be done in a 'bottom up monetary policy' BUMP for short, where the concentration is on helping those with the greatest need.
Don't let the Bitcoin become the tool of the investment banker and the money launderer, wheeling hundreds of millions of bitcoins in and out of the market, causing honest small investors to be stopped out - let the trillion dollars of remittances follow the tight rules on size, maximum $900 per month, no grouping, under five node authorization approval (usually in less than a second) - become the main market.
Let us learn from the BUMP - but let the BUMP do its job of lowering costs for the poor, maybe giving them a way to save some money as well - in something that does go up in value significantly - and allows hope of finding a way to break out of poverty.
Let us see what can be done; let the poor lead the way - and actually start the narrowing of the rich/ poor gap with this exciting technology!
What can you do to help?
- fscadut Oct 12, 2017
  
  Christopher,
  your point about the transfer of money that is faster, cheaper, and only requires a cell phone is a major benefit of Bitcoin (and other digital currencies)! I've read that over 2 Billion (that's Billion with a B) do not have access to the modern banking system, even having a simple bank account. Digital currency will allow this massively under-served population access to the global financial system with a cell phone and a digital currency wallet. Just imagine the positive effect on poverty and economic growth from such large population entering the financial system.
  
  Well written comments!
  - John Ellis Oct 15, 2017
    
    Yes I can see $5000 plus bitcoins having a huge impact on commerce among the rural population of India, Africa and China. LOL
    - Harry Arm Dec 19, 2017
      
      You have obviously done your research John. 1 satoshi is 0.00000001 ฿ (~5000 satoshi in a dollar)
      Maybe try reading the white paper
      https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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    - fscadut Oct 17, 2017
      
      These 2 Billion people don't have access to any other type of financial banking products. With a cell phone or internet connection they can transact Bitcoin with anyone around the world in seconds, without needing the banking system at all. AND the transaction costs are tiny. So YES, it will have a large impact on India, Africa, and China. Bitcoin can be purchase in tiny fractions as well, so this population can use any amount they can afford. The price doesn't take away from the application of Bitcoin.
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lachlancraigie Oct 11, 2017

Kenneth Rogoff is fighting for the embarrassing position of becoming the new Professor Bitcorn. He's are clearly baffled as to why millenials have massive interest in bitcoin, and mate, its not because we're all hanging out for the Central Bank Coin rip off of it to come online.
- John Ellis Oct 15, 2017
  
  They may have a massive interest but they are not actually using their own money. Most of the activity is speculation in China.
  - John Ellis Oct 15, 2017
    
    And before anyone jumps in I know it's theoretically decamped to Japan although who knows where it's all actually being driven from. The point is it's primarily speculation. All this activity is not being generated with the goal of buying houses, horses or Hermes handbags. Of course it may well be being used for drug dealing transactions, money laundering and the like which could ultimately result in the purchase of houses, horses, Hermes, but as Rogoff points out no government is going to allow this to balloon. And once the bitcoin becomes transparent it loses its most potent attraction as a currency.
    - fscadut Oct 17, 2017
      
      Johnny Johnny....again you don't do your research.
      
      UK home for sale in Bitcoin: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4467612/posh-1-7-million-house-in-south-london-becomes-uk-first-to-be-offered-for-digital-bitcoin-currency/
      
      House purchased: https://futurism.com/bitcoin-was-just-used-to-pay-for-a-new-home-in-texas/
      
      Florida house: https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/bitcoin-miami-mansion-sale/
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fscadut Oct 10, 2017

I'll take the first opportunity to comment and would like to thank Mr. Rogoff for going on record with his views of Bitcoin. In the very near future, I think we can look back on Mr. Rogoff's analysis and conclusions about Bitcoin to see his position has major omissions and errors of fact. Of course, one would not be surprised by this one bit, given Mr. Rogoff's recent history of data omission and lack of basic fact checking on a major piece of academic research.
(See https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/04/forget-excel-this-was-reinhart-and-rogoffs-biggest-mistake/275088/)

It's fairly obvious that Mr. Rogoff looks only for information and conclusions that support his hypotheses, rather than considering the evidence that refutes his claims. What good is research if this is the author's end goal. Besides, economists as a whole fail miserably at predicting any meaningful information, even in the very short term! How many economists predicted recessions in countries around the world even 6 months before the global collapse? The Answer: ZERO.

But for now, we can let Mr. Rogoff use his credentials as a PhD to make predictions about Bitcoin and other digital currencies. However, when the future arrives there's going to be no doubt about the failed accuracy of his conclusion.
- John Ellis Oct 15, 2017
  
  Didn't I see essentially the same predictions by Dimon and Fink. And for your information lots of economists predicted the crash.
  - fscadut Oct 17, 2017
    
    Well John Ellis,
    
    You obviously do not do your research before you decide on your opinions. So "for your information" the Financial Times reported on a study that researched the epic failure of economists at predicting recessions, particularly the 2008 recession. This study was authored by an economist at the IMF and published in the research journal "International Journal of Forecasting". So "for your information" you are WRONG!! And if you'd like to learn about why you were wrong then read the link below, paragraphs 2-4. But I doubt you'll read it. You obviously give no critical thought to your slapstick opinions.
    
    Regarding Bitcoin, while yes Dimon and Fink have called it a fraud, Morgan Stanley's CEO has said its more than a fad with real world applications. Also, Blankfein (I assume you know who that is) has said Goldman is investigating trading bitcoin and other digital currencies as part of their Trading Operations. Smart people are taking sides on Bitcoin. I'll stick with Gorman and Goldman. You get Dimon and Fink. Good luck sir!
    
    https://www.ft.com/content/70a2a978-adac-11e7-8076-0a4bdda92ca2
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