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Des barbares aux portes du système monétaire

HONG KONG – Actuellement, les marchés financiers sont florissants. La moyenne industrielle Dow Jones, le S&P 500 et l'indice composé Nasdaq ont dernièrement tous atteint des sommets. Les marchés financiers des économies émergentes ont également eu de très bons résultats, alors que les investisseurs recherchent la stabilité au milieu d'une incertitude généralisée. Mais parce que ces résultats ne sont pas fondés sur les fondamentaux du marché, ils ne sont pas durables, mais plutôt très risqués.

Selon Mohamed El-Erian, la leçon que nous n'avons pas tirée de la crise financière de 2007 est que les modèles de croissance économique « s'appuient trop sur les liquidités et sur l'effet de levier - par des institutions financières privées, puis par des banques centrales. » En effet, l'un des principaux moteurs des résultats actuels des marchés financiers est l'attente du maintien des liquidités des banques centrales.

Une fois que la Réserve fédérale américaine a révélé sa décision le mois dernier de laisser inchangés les taux d'intérêt, la moyenne industrielle Dow Jones a établi des records intrajournaliers et de clôture ; le Nasdaq a également atteint des sommets sans précédents. À présent les marchés financiers attendent des signaux de la réunion des principaux dirigeants des banques centrales à Jackson Hole au Wyoming cette année.

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