El problema del dinero caliente de Turquía

NUEVA YORK – La volatilidad financiera actual en las economías emergentes está alimentado el debate sobre si los llamados "Cinco Frágiles" -Brasil, India, Indonesia, Sudáfrica y Turquía- deberían ser considerados víctimas de las políticas monetarias de los países avanzados o víctimas de su propia integración excesiva en los mercados financieros globales. Para responder a esa pregunta es preciso examinar las diferentes políticas que han aplicado en respuesta a la expansión monetaria -y los diferentes niveles de riesgo que esas respuestas han generado.

Si bien los Cinco Frágiles -identificados en base a sus déficits fiscales y de cuenta corriente idénticos, que los tornan particularmente vulnerables a la volatilidad de los flujos de capital- han adoptado algunas medidas macroprudenciales desde la crisis financiera global, la combinación de esas políticas y sus resultados han variado sustancialmente. Mientras que Brasil, India e Indonesia han respondido a los crecientes ingresos de capital con nuevas regulaciones de las cuentas de capital, Sudáfrica y Turquía han permitido que el capital circulara libremente a través de sus fronteras.

Consideremos la respuesta de Turquía, que se ha caracterizado por un firme compromiso con la apertura de las cuentas de capital. Aunque los acontecimientos políticos en Turquía recientemente han acaparado la atención, la crisis actual del país está arraigada en debilidades económicas, reflejadas en una pérdida de confianza de los inversores y en la marcada depreciación del tipo de cambio de la lira. Esta inestabilidad ha generado temores de un contagio de los mercados emergentes, siendo Sudáfrica especialmente susceptible, debido a su apertura de las cuentas de capital.

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