Le problème des capitaux spéculatifs en Turquie

NEW YORK – La volatilité financière actuelle dans les économies émergentes alimente le débat cherchant à déterminer si les pays que l’on appelle les « Fragile Five » - Brésil, Inde, Indonésie, Afrique du Sud et Turquie - doivent être considérés comme des victimes de la politique monétaire des pays avancés ou comme des victimes de leur propre intégration excessive aux marchés financiers mondiaux. Pour répondre à cette question, il convient d’examiner leurs différentes réponses politiques à l'expansion monétaire - et les différents niveaux de risque que ces réponses ont créés.

Bien que l'ensemble des « Fragile Five » - identifiés sur la base de leur double déficit budgétaire et courant, qui les rend particulièrement vulnérables à la volatilité des flux de capitaux - aient adopté un certain nombre de mesures macro-prudentielles depuis la crise financière mondiale, la combinaison de ces politiques, ainsi que leurs résultats, ont varié considérablement. Alors que le Brésil, l'Inde et l'Indonésie ont répondu aux afflux de capitaux par de nouvelles règlementations sur le compte de capital, l'Afrique du Sud et la Turquie ont permis au capital de circuler librement à travers leurs frontières.

Prenez la réponse de la Turquie, qui a été caractérisée par un engagement indéfectible envers l’ouverture de son compte de capital. Bien que les développements politiques en Turquie aient monopolisé la plupart de l'attention ces derniers temps, la crise actuelle du pays est enracinée dans des faiblesses économiques, reflétées dans la baisse de confiance des investisseurs et la forte dépréciation du taux de change de la lire. Cette instabilité a soulevé des craintes de contagion sur les marchés émergents, l'Afrique du Sud étant un cas particulièrement sensible, en raison de l’ouverture son compte de capital.

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