土耳其的热钱问题

纽约—新兴经济体的持续金融动荡助长了关于所谓的“脆弱五国”——巴西、印度、印尼、南非和土耳其应该被视为发达国家货币政策的受害者还是其自身过度融入全球金融市场的受害者的争论。要回答这一问题,就需要考察它们对货币扩张的不同政策反应,以及这些反应所造成的不同风险水平。

尽管自全球金融危机以来,脆弱五国——这个名字来源于财政和经常项目双赤字,从而让它们尤其易受资本流波动影响——采取了一些宏观审慎措施,但政策的组合以及结果大不相同。巴西、印度和印尼用新的资本账户管制措施应对资本流入剧增,而南非和土耳其则放任资本自由进出。

以土耳其的反应为例。土耳其坚定地实施了资本账户开放。尽管土耳其的政治发展局势吸引了大部分注意力,但该国当前的危机根源还在于经济疲软,反映在投资者信心的下降和里拉汇率的剧烈贬值上。这一不稳定性引起了人们对新兴市场传染病的担心,南非尤其危险,因为它也实施了资本账户开放。

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