economics class Richard Graulich/ZumaPress

符合事实的经济学

剑桥—经济学界也许是2008—2009年全球金融危机的第一受害人。毕竟,经济学实践家没有预见到这次灾难,当需要对此作出反应时,许多经济学家也提不出任何有用的建议。但是,与全球经济一样,有理由相信这门学科正在逐渐进步。

主流经济学模型因为危机而信誉扫地,因为这些模型根本不承认有可能发生危机。经济学的训练强调技术甚于直觉,强调理论优美性甚于真实世界相关性,这让经济学家无法给出反常条件下的实用政策建议。

有人认为,解决办法是回归过去比较简单的经济模型,这类模型所产生的政策药方显然足以阻止可以比较的危机。其他人坚持相反的意见,认为如今有效政策日益需要复杂模型以充分把握二十一世纪经济的混乱动态。

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