economics class Richard Graulich/ZumaPress

اقتصاد يتناسب مع الحقائق

كمبريدج ــ يُقال إن مهنة الاقتصاد كانت أولى ضحايا الأزمة المالية العالمية في الفترة 2008-2009. فقد فشل ممارسو هذه المهنة في توقع الكارثة، وبدا كثيرون منهم عاجزين عن التلفظ بأي شيء مفيد عندما حان الوقت لصياغة استجابة فعّالة. ولكن كما هي الحال مع الاقتصاد العالمي، فهناك ما يدعو إلى الأمل في أن تكون المهنة في طريقها إلى التحسن.

لقد فقدت النماذج الاقتصادية السائدة مصداقيتها بفِعل الأزمة لأنها لم تعترف ببساطة بإمكانية حدوثها. والواقع أن التدريب الذي أعطى الأولوية للتكنيك قبل الحدس والوجاهة النظرية قبل الاتصال بالعالم الحقيقي فشل في إعداد الاقتصاديين لتقديم ذلك النوع من المشورة العملية في مجال السياسات والمطلوبة في الظروف الاستثنائية.

يرى البعض أن الحل هو العودة إلى النماذج الاقتصادية الأكثر بساطة من الماضي، والتي أسفرت عن وصفات سياسية كانت كافية بوضوح لمنع أزمات مماثلة. ويصر آخرون على العكس فيزعمون أن السياسات الفعّالة اليوم تتطلب نماذج متزايدة التعقيد وقادرة بشكل أكثر اكتمالاً على استيعاب الديناميكيات الفوضوية التي تحكم الاقتصاد في القرن الحادي والعشرين.

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