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A Roadmap for Stabilizing Sino-American Relations

Nov 25, 2020 Minxin Pei

Given the current bipartisan US antipathy toward China, President-elect Joe Biden is unlikely to change the fundamental tenets of President Donald Trump’s hard-line policy. But if Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping each invest a modest amount of political capital, they may be able to de-escalate bilateral tensions.

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – Devising an effective strategy to compete, cooperate, and co-exist with China will be one of US President-elect Joe Biden’s toughest foreign-policy challenges. And over the next two months, Sino-American relations are almost certain to get worse.

On the eve of the election, President Donald Trump openly blamed China for the COVID-19 pandemic that was going to doom his second term and made thinly veiled threats. Now that he is about to exit the White House, Trump will likely approve more punitive measures to vent his anger and to bind the hands of Biden’s incoming administration. Even if China refrains from responding in kind to Trump’s parting shots, some of which may be too painful or humiliating for it to swallow, the US-China relationship that Biden inherits could be damaged beyond repair.

Given the current strong antipathy toward China among much of the US political establishment and the public alike, Biden is unlikely to change the fundamental tenets of Trump’s China policy. China will remain America’s foremost geopolitical adversary, and containing its rise will be the organizing principle of US foreign policy for the foreseeable future.

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Cultural Decoupling from China Will Hurt the US
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Cultural Decoupling from China Will Hurt the US

Minxin Pei explains why the Trump administration's latest efforts at bilateral separation are unwise and counterproductive.

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Andrés Arellano Baez Dec 6, 2020

"United States can sustain and strengthen its competitive advantages: economic dynamism, technological innovation, and ideological appeal." Those are not longer US strengths by any means. US economy is based today on his monetary policy, as Richard Wolff explains. Huawei is an example of where technological innovation is really happening. And the Electoral College, racism, Citizen United, all that eliminates the ideological appeal of US democracy.
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j. von Hettlingen Nov 27, 2020

Minxin Pei says one of Joe Biden’s toughest foreign policy challenges is how to work out a “an effective strategy to compete, cooperate, and co-exist” with China. Biden’s hands are tied. Given the overwhelming bipartisan consensus, that China’s rise represents a threat to US interests, he does not want to appear weak on Beijing. Calling Chinese President Xi Jinping a “thug” during the election campaign, he sought to dispel any doubts about his willingness to take a tough line.
The author believes Sino-American relations “are almost certain to get worse” in the next two months. Until his departure, Trump “will likely approve more punitive measures to vent his anger,” so that his successor would inherit a relationship with China that is “damaged beyond repair.” Xi could face the dilemma whether to retaliate, because some of the hard-line measures “may be too painful or humiliating” for China to stomach.
Trump’s tough stance towards Beijing is a rare glimpse of unity in a divided country. “Biden is unlikely to change the fundamental tenets of Trump’s China policy,” and would continue to challenge Beijing in most fields. China “will remain America’s foremost geopolitical adversary, and containing its rise” - possibly with the support of once alienated allies and partners - “will be the organizing principle of US foreign policy for the foreseeable future.”
The author says, “the Biden administration’s China policy will also differ substantially from Trump’s zero-sum ‘America First’ approach.” A globalist at heart, Biden has promised to reposition the US on the world stage. He will presumably act less crudely and impetuously than Trump, which would allow his counterpart, Xi to adopt a face-saving strategy. Beijing loathes to be put on the spot. With the entire international community watching, China can not afford to blink.
Biden’s “strategic calculation is that the Sino-American conflict will be a decades-long marathon whose outcome will depend first and foremost on whether the United States can sustain and strengthen its competitive advantages: economic dynamism, technological innovation, and ideological appeal.” A weaker and divided America under an administration distracted by domestic turmoil would only embolden China, boosting its confidence.
The author urges Biden to “focus on strengthening America at home by addressing its dilapidated infrastructure, inadequate base of human capital, and underfunded research and development. Moreover, whereas the Trump administration sees no room for cooperation with China, the Biden administration will regard mutually beneficial collaboration on issues such as climate change, pandemics, and nuclear non-proliferation as both desirable and essential.”
It explains why the January 5 runoffs in Georgia are so important, because Democrats need to win the two seats there to control the Senate. For the moment they occupy 48 seats. If the Senate splits 50/50, this will allow the vice president - Kamala Harris - to caste the tie-breaking vote. Being in a minority, Senate Democrats will not be able to implement their agenda - like renewing the country’s infrastructure. Even presidential appointments need the Senate’s approval.
It remains to be seen whether Biden would be able to fashion a “more nuanced and sustainable long-term China strategy,” which would “bring about an immediate and welcome pause in the Sino-American cold war. It is also in his short-term political interest to de-escalate or even end Trump’s trade war, because the US economy needs all the help it can get to climb out of its pandemic-induced slump.”
No doubt China represents massive economic opportunities for the American farmers and lobster fishermen, who have been badly hit by Trump’s reckless trade wars. They hope that Biden would gradually reduce the trade sanctions on China and improve their access to Chinese markets. Beyond the economic benefits, this could help to erode Trump’s base, improving Democrats’ electoral prospects in the coming years.
The author says, “although China’s leaders have…concluded that they are now locked in an open-ended conflict with the US, de-escalating bilateral tensions is in their short-term political interest, too. China…believes that time is on its side, because its economy will continue to grow faster than America’s in the coming decade, gradually shifting the overall balance of power in its favor. For now, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s main priority is to avoid a further escalation of tensions with the US while his country is in a position of relative weakness.”
Xi knows that if Biden does restore America’s reputation as a reliable ally, a formidable group of countries might join the US in confronting China. It remains to be seen, whether the leadership in Beijing is eager to work hard to establish constructive, mutually beneficial relations with the Biden administration.
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Jose Oyola Nov 26, 2020

US policy towards China should start by recognizing three key characteristics that make it a major strategic risk to US and its neighbors. (1) China is controlled by a communist party with an inherent bias to be dominated by cult leaders, like Mao Zedong and Xi Jinping. Once in power, cult leaders are prone to incur in military invasions to hide its domestic failures. Neighboring countries like the Koreans and Vietnamese have keen memories of repeated military invasions by China in 20th century. (2) China has the largest homogeneous ethnic group, the Han, who make about 18% of the global population, and are prone to conquer and supress other cultures, like the People in Inner Mongolia and Tibet. Recently Xi Jinping ordered incarcerations of millions of moslems like Ughurs in “re-education” camps. (3) China’s Han population are prone to justify the aggressions of their Communist leaders by their millenial history of past glories and external invasions by Western powers.
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