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Politics

Os limites da cooperação EUA-China sobre o clima

May 6, 2021 Minxin Pei

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – Apesar da rivalidade cada vez mais acirrada, os Estados Unidos e a China têm ultimamente enviado sinais positivos sobre uma possível cooperação no combate às mudanças climáticas. A declaração conjunta emitida após a reunião de meados de abril entre John Kerry, enviado presidencial especial dos EUA para o clima, e seu colega chinês, Xie Zhenhua, indica que os dois governos podem estar tentando usar a colaboração na política climática para evitar que seu relacionamento se transforme em inimizade absoluta. Mas o caminho à frente está repleto de minas terrestres geopolíticas.

Não é difícil entender por que os EUA e a China estão se comportando de maneira responsável neste momento. Ambos os países veem as mudanças climáticas como uma ameaça existencial e têm grande interesse em cooperar. E Biden e o presidente chinês Xi Jinping sabem que a intransigência clara ou o obstrucionismo nessa questão custaria caro em termos de opinião pública internacional.

Durante a Guerra Fria, a luta ideológica entre comunismo e capitalismo dividiu o mundo e cimentou alianças. Mas, na próxima década, é improvável que a ideologia por si só conquistasse muitos amigos para os EUA e a China. O Partido Comunista da China não tem mais nenhuma real ideologia sobre a qual falar, enquanto a polarização política e o trumpismo mancharam o brilho dos EUA. Em vez disso, como as mudanças climáticas colocam em risco a sobrevivência humana, a liderança no enfrentamento do problema moldará as alianças internacionais.

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j. von Hettlingen May 9, 2021

Minxin Pei is right about the world needing China and the US to urgently cooperate on climate change. China, the world’s second largest economy is also the world’s biggest polluter, way ahead of the US, the world’s largest economy. The US used to be responsible for more emissions than any other country on earth, but it had been surpassed by China a decade ago, whose emissions today are about double the American figure.
Despite their “increasingly bitter rivalry,” the US and China have recently conveyed their intent to cooperate and combat climate change. It is “not difficult to understand why the US and China are behaving responsibly at the moment.” Both countries see climate change as “an existential threat” to human survival, and “have a strong interest in cooperation. And Biden and President Xi Jinping know that open intransigence or obstructionism on this issue would cost them dearly in terms of international public opinion.”
The author says, “we should not harbor any illusions. The best we can hope for is that the two superpowers are disciplined enough to avoid endangering humanity’s survival as they jostle for geopolitical advantage.” There is no time to lose, because climate change is killing more people every year than all war and violence in the world. More than smoking, hunger or natural disasters. More than AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria combined, according to health experts.
Yet “turning rhetorical climate commitments into action will sorely test both countries in the coming years. Shortly after Biden’s recent climate summit of world leaders…. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hinted that China’s cooperation with America would hinge on whether the US ‘interferes in China’s internal affairs.’” He said the US policy toward China “has not yet overcome its misunderstanding of China, and the country has not found the right path to deal with China.”
Last month, Wang put forward five suggestions on what the US must do. First, it should understand and view China's development objectively and rationally. Second, it should work with China on a new path of peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation. Third, it should respect and tolerate the path and system that China has independently chosen. Fourth, it should practice multilateralism in real sense. Fifth, it should not interfere in China's internal affairs.
While China regards Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and, most importantly, Taiwan as “internal affairs,” Kerry has made it clear that the US will not trade away concessions on these matters for Chinese cooperation on climate change. The author believes that, “unless China or the US softens its position, further escalation of Sino-American tensions over these hot-button issues can be expected to endanger bilateral climate efforts.”
Such a cooperation will be “volatile, modest, and incremental at best. The volatility stems from the overall instability of US-China relations, with a spike in tensions inevitably inflicting collateral damage on climate efforts. Mutual suspicion and hostility will also prevent both sides from taking big steps and motivate them to drive hard bargains. Only minor measures can test trust and produce sufficient goodwill to sustain cooperation,” which is expected to be a “gradual, drawn-out process.”
Perhaps it is the only way forward, given the absence of mutual confidence. To begin with, the US and China should build trust. According to the author, they “can best cooperate by refraining from certain actions, rather than actively trying to achieve things together. Here, the first imperative is to avoid linking climate cooperation with the most adversarial aspects of the bilateral relationship, such as human rights, trade, and security.”
This requires restraint and will demand more of China than of the US, because “Chinese leaders apparently believe that the climate issue gives them crucial leverage over Biden’s policies in other areas. Xi needs to recognize that such linkages will be counterproductive. Strong bipartisan anti-China sentiment in the US leaves Biden little room for maneuver, and Chinese intransigence could severely damage Xi’s credibility as a global leader on climate change.”
It remains to be seen whether the two can resist the “temptation to score points by attacking each other’s positions during upcoming multilateral climate negotiations,” which will help them to “stay productively engaged. On specific issues such as emissions-reduction goals and contributions to financing energy transitions in developing economies, each country should base its criticism on sound scientific, economic, and moral grounds.”
What the author proposes may well be wishful thinking: China and the US “should accompany their criticism with alternatives that third parties deem reasonable, realistic, and beneficial.” It is more likely that they seek to put pressure on other countries to take sides. Moreover the two are competing with each other for tech leadership, so it may be “unrealistic” to talk about active cooperation on clean energy.”
Besides, the US and China have “agreed in their recent joint statement only to discuss, not commit to, collaboration on green technologies.” Hence, they may “still explore ways to sequester such innovations from their broader strategic competition.” Let us hope that the two would “seek to minimize harm whenever they weigh policies that might appear necessary to maintain a competitive advantage,” as they could “adversely affect the development and adoption of green technologies.”
Home to many of the world’s many polluted cities, China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs), with severe air pollution having serious adverse impacts on human health. The leadership seeks to combat air pollution by reducing GHGs over the coming decades. But achieving the goals required a substantial amount of green financing, which will put increasing pressure on a financial system that isn't ready, according to top industry regulators and banking experts.
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Jacki Rawn May 7, 2021

the so-called "cooperation" missed the mark. Climate is an international issue, not the bilateral ones between China and US. What's the specific meaning of "cooperation"?
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