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لماذا يستطيع بايدن التغلب على الجمود السياسي

Nov 13, 2020 Anatole Kaletsky

لندن ــ مرت الانتخابات الأميركية دون مفاجآت كبرى، وجاءت ردة الفعل الحماسية في الأسواق المالية متفقة تماما مع ما كان ليتوقعه أي كتاب اقتصادي أكاديمي عندما يحل رجل وسطي تقليدي يمكن التنبؤ بتصرفاته محل شعبوي متطرف ضال كرئيس للولايات المتحدة. إلى جانب حالة المستثمرين النفسية، هناك عدة أسباب جوهرية تبرر نُـصرة بايدن: شبه اليقين بشأن المزيد من التحفيز المالي في الأمد القريب؛ والاحتمالية العالية لإدارة الطلب على طريقة جون ماينارد كينز الداعمة للنمو في الأمد المتوسط؛ وإمكانية حدوث طفرة استثمار عالمية في تكنولوجيات الطاقة الجديدة والنقل في الأمد البعيد.

مع ذلك، تساور الشكوك أغلب المستثمرين وأهل الاقتصاد والمحللين السياسيين حول كل هذه الاحتمالات بسبب فشل الديمقراطيين في استعادة السيطرة على مجلس الشيوخ. ووفقا للرأي السائد، سرعان ما سيجد بايدن نفسه مشلولا لأن الجمهوريين سيتبعون ذات قواعد اللعبة التي استخدموها لتخريب إدارة باراك أوباما. فبعد الفوز بالأغلبية في مجلس النواب في عام 2010، حَـجَـب رئيس مجلس النواب جون بوينر كل التشريعات تقريبا، محولا أوباما إلى رئيس عاجز طوال ست سنوات من السنوات الثماني التي قضاها في منصبه. والآن، سيعود مجلس الشيوخ، الذي ظل تحت سيطرة الحزب الجمهوري منذ انتخابات التجديد النصفي في عام 2014، مرة أخرى إلى خلق حالة من الجمود فضلا عن منع الإغاثة من الجائحة، وعرقلة التوسع المالي، وإحباط الاستثمار الجديد في الطاقة أو البنية الأساسية.

لكن هذه ليست القصة كاملة. فهناك خمس سمات جديدة للديناميكيات السياسية في أميركا تغافل عنها هذا الرأي التقليدي القاتم.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 15 Comments on this article

Nov 17, 2020

This comment was removed by a moderator. Replies to this comment may also be deleted. Please note that we moderate comments to ensure the conversation remains topically relevant. We appreciate well-informed comments and welcome your criticism and insight. Please be civil and avoid name-calling and ad hominem remarks.
- Nov 18, 2020
  
  This comment was removed by a moderator. Replies to this comment may also be deleted. Please note that we moderate comments to ensure the conversation remains topically relevant. We appreciate well-informed comments and welcome your criticism and insight. Please be civil and avoid name-calling and ad hominem remarks.
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Darius Jehangir Nov 16, 2020

Micth McConnell, Senate majority leader decides whether proposed legislation comes to the Senate floor at all. If he doesnt want a vote, it just doesn't happen - it simply isnt a case of trying to win around a few Republican senators.
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Per Kurowski Nov 15, 2020

???
The US Democrat Congressman’s / Senator’s 2022 elections conundrum
Without the energizing anti-Trump vote, how do I break away from the crazy-left to save 30% of my moderate democrats votes, without losing crazy-left votes which must provide me 15% of the votes I need?
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Mark St. Angelo Nov 15, 2020

The author's predictions are based on a number of assumptions that I think are dubious at best. For example, the author assumes that a big "relief" bill is almost certain to pass, but that assumption relies on yet another assumption that the Democrats will agree to immunity from liability for employers exposing workers to infection and/or for companies that expose their customers to infection. Whether that latter assumption is warranted remains to be seen.

The author also assumes that the public's attitude toward government borrowing has been "transformed," without citing any evidence to support that assumption. In the absence of such evidence, I think it is much more likely that we will return to the status quo of the Republican Party and its members opposing deficits when a Democrat is in the White House.
- ferdinand van Dieten Nov 16, 2020
  
  I hope the Democrats are so wise not to credit Trump and the GOP for a Relief Bill before the 5th of Januari. After that date they can wait 2 weeks more to take full credit themselves; and hopefully with less concessions to McConnell. So they should combine the Relief Bill with a lot of funds for Obamacare en Medicare and Green options, to invoke an GOP obstruction, which the democrats can use against them in the Georgia campaign. Reaching out to the GOP voters is something completely different from reaching out to the GOP powerplayers, who never ever reach out.
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David Lentz Nov 15, 2020

In the article there is this statement
Democrats accept previously rejected conditions such as immunity for employers from liability for COVID-19,
This is a non starter
The democratic congress has already rejected this many times
Pelosi will never agree to that. Civil suits are very important to both political parties. Remember most of them are lawyers by trade
Actually Biden in the past has been fairly right wing with the crime bill of 1994, segregation etc
So in a sense now have a republican president
As one black person commented Biden will break his arm but a re-elected trump would break his neck back and legs so voted for Joe
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Michael Fesser Nov 13, 2020

"The US election has passed without any big surprises"

Right off the bat this is comical. Actually there was a large number of surprises. The house, the senate, down ballot, and the actual popular vote. The only thing that was ot a huge surprise was Biden winning.

"First, a big COVID-19 relief bill is almost certain to pass Congress even before Biden is sworn in."

Pelosi was the obstructionist, her party and even CNN were calling her out on it. Also 1 trillion? That is pocket change.

"Second, when Biden becomes president, he will find it much easier to maintain public support for government spending and resist pressures for budget consolidation than Obama did after losing the House in 2010. The COVID-19 crisis has transformed public attitudes to government spending and borrowing."

No he won't and no it did not. The only reason spending is being ignored is because of covid.

"McConnell will find it difficult to maintain 100% unanimity against a Biden fiscal stimulus plan, especially if the stimulus is delivered mainly through tax cuts for the middle class. "

Which is exactly what the Republicans want? When were the Republicans under Trump ever against this?

"because six of the 20 current GOP senators who will face voters in the 2022 election happen to represent swing states: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."

Ya because in 2020 it seemed to be a huge issue, oh wait it wasn't. It is like you completely ignored this election. Also Florida and Ohio are not swing states atm, they pretty solidly went Republican twice.

"Fourth, a GOP Senate majority may not even exist. "

And we all might be in the martix. No the conventional wisdom is in fact correct.

1. The Republicans did extremely well down ballot even were Trump did poorly.
2. Trump is firing the base up quite nicely. You have to be blind not to see that.
3. Trump not being on the ticket will not matter since he will be urging people on from the sidelines.
4. Biden and co are already poisoning their well for a win. They will just keep saying stupid crap about socialism. Also they are punting some of the progressive leaders.

Finally, a new kind of Trump disruption may soon hit US politics

This is actually the stupidest point you are making and shows you have no idea what is going on with the lawsuits. They are not at all about winning as they are a huge long shot. Trump is returning the favour to Biden that him and Obama did to Trump. Also it is about positioning for 2024.

It is shocking how the pundits keep getting it dramatically wrong.
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Henry Miller Nov 13, 2020

"Keynesian demand management" is "pro-growth" in much the same way that maxxing-out your credit card debt is "pro-growth."
- Robert Schundler Nov 13, 2020
  
  Yes, Henry ....."further fiscal stimulus in the short term; the high probability of pro-growth Keynesian demand management in the medium term;" ..... my understanding of Keynesian Economics is that one spends when demand is slow, and one take back when demand is good .... I have never seen Keynesian Economics apply .... and with our national debt, how would that be repaid .... Henry you seem to be one of the few that is willing to point out what the media fear to address .....
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Lothar Baier Nov 13, 2020

You are fooling yourself if even just for one minute you believe that millions of voters who suffered all kinds of verbal and emotional abuse from democrats over the past 4 years will just forget about all the bad labels and insults that have been hurled at them and the president they elected and come together with their abusers to support a president that was pretty much partaking in the effort as well ! oh no folks this aint going to happen , people are angry and they are not going to burry the hatchet but rather be eager to repay biden and democrats ten times over !
As house members and senators are elected by those people they will not be foolish enough to go against the will of their constituents by working with the other side , bi partisan ship might have been a bad word the past 4 years but going forward it will be downright toxic .
Republicans are set for a net gain of 10-12 house seats , none of the newly elected house members ran on a platform of working with democrats , if the GOP ends up with 210 seats they only have to turn around 9 more seats in 2022 for a majority , a look art the average losses of the presidential party in mid terms over the past 10 years will show you that the majority is perfectly within reach especially if political arsonists like AOC and her fellow squad members keep on throwing out talk about enemy lists , defunding the police and other garbage !
Where trump was called not a legitimate president because supposedly russia helped him getting elected the cloud of illegitimacy will hang over biden due to voter fraud, biden of course could skirt this by calling and supporting for a full bipartisan investigation into potential voter fraud but instead he is ignoring the issue !
Where trump was investigated for a garden variety of things biden could face inquiries and potential impeachment over his connections to russia and china , the media might have ignored the story of hunter bidens laptop but chances are this is going to rear its head just as soon as the GOP takes back the house ! So buckle up folks and dont bet on partisan gridlock going away , the knives are out !
- Bernhard Kopp Nov 14, 2020
  
  With the " verbal and emotional abuse " you must have meant the 11000 tweets the President gracefully posted in 4 years. Gimme a break. I understand the uncertainty regarding the senate seats in Georgia, but as Mr. Kaletsky argues above, Mr. Biden might nevertheless find ways to find cooperative senators. 2021 will be a fairly rough year, with the health crisis not ending very soon, and, the economy tanking possibly even deeper than it did in 2020. After Jan. 5 we shall know more.
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Henry Miller Nov 13, 2020

"...Republicans will follow the same obstructionist playbook they used to sabotage Barack Obama’s administration."

But no mention that it was the same "obstructionist playbook" the Democrats tried ti use to sabotage Trump's administration?"
- Michael Public Nov 14, 2020
  
  Yes. We really need that wall. /s
  - Bernhard Kopp Nov 15, 2020
    
    Now that Mr. Trump will be a private entrepreneur again, he can team up with Mr. Bannon to raise the funding and build THE WALL. He can also campaign in the agriculture, the construction and all service industries ( including his own hotels and golf resorts ), and all Chamber-of-Commerce-Republicans, to finally, finally stop employing, through sub-contractors, sub-sub-contractors, and otherwise illegal aliens. They will stop coming if they know that there is no way to get an undocumented job.
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