Más allá del objetivo de los dos grados

BERLÍN – En los círculos relacionados con políticas sobre el cambio climático, existe un amplio consenso en torno al objetivo de limitar el calentamiento global a un máximo de dos grados centígrados por sobre los niveles previos a la revolución industrial. Aun así, a menos que en el futuro cercano haya grandes avances en las negociaciones de las Naciones Unidas y se reviertan las actuales tendencias de emisiones, se trata de una meta casi imposible de cumplir.

Sin embargo, si los líderes mundiales abandonan ese objetivo, deberán tomar una decisión estratégica fundamental sobre la estructura y los niveles de rigurosidad de un nuevo objetivo climático. Así, la política internacional sobre el clima precisa de un cambio de paradigma. El enfoque basado en supuestos científicos de traducir un límite global de temperatura a presupuestos de emisiones nacionales específicos es políticamente impracticable. En lugar de ello, los países con sólidas prioridades para contrarrestar el cambio climático deben promover fórmulas dinámicas para establecer objetivos.

El objetivo de los dos grados es el principal punto de referencia en el debate actual sobre el clima. Por lo general, se considera que un aumento correspondiente de la temperatura media global es el límite más allá del cual los efectos del cambio climático podrían volverse peligrosos. Pero, al contrario de la creencia general, el último informe de evaluación del Panel Intergubernamental sobre el Cambio Climático (PICC) no hizo llamado alguno en torno a esta meta, que desde mediados de los años 90 ha actuado como rumbo y símbolo para establecer un conjunto de medidas ambiciosas pero realistas sobre el cambio climático.

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