Jenseits des Feldzuges gegen CO2

KOPENHAGEN – In ihrem Kern drehen sich weite Teile der Debatte um den Klimawandel um nur eine entzweiende und leidige Frage: In welcher Höhe sollten die Kohlendioxidemissionen verringert werden?

Die Konzentration auf diesen eng umrissenen Punkt führt dazu, dass die Debatte nicht konstruktiv geführt wird. Alle wollen die globale Erwärmung verhindern und die wirkliche Frage ist: Wie kann uns das am besten gelingen? Wir sollten offen für andere Möglichkeiten sein, die Erwärmung zu stoppen –  so etwa wie die Kohlendioxidemissionen nicht jetzt, sondern in Zukunft verringert werden können oder uns auf die Reduzierung anderer Treibhausgase konzentrieren. Die Erderwärmung wird erhebliche Probleme verursachen, also bietet die Verringerung von Kohlendioxidemissionen erhebliche Vorteile. Die Verringerung der Kohlendioxidemissionen setzt jedoch eine Reduzierung des grundlegenden Energieverbrauchs voraus, der ein Grundpfeiler der modernen Gesellschaft ist, und wird demzufolge auch erhebliche Kosten bedeuten.

Der bekannte Klimaökonom Professor Richard Tol von der Universität Hamburg hat die Vorteile und Kosten einer Senkung der Kohlendioxidemission jetzt im Vergleich zu einer Verringerung in Zukunft analysiert. Eine frühzeitige Verringerung wird $17,8 Billionen Dollar kosten, während eine Reduzierung zu einem späteren Zeitpunkt lediglich $2 Billionen Dollar kosten wird. Trotzdem wird die Verringerung der CO2-Konzentration – und somit der Temperatur – im Jahr 2100 durch zukünftige Reduzierungen größer sein. Eine Senkung der Emissionen zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt ist wesentlich teurer, weil es nur wenige, teure Alternativen zu fossilen Brennstoffen gibt. Wenn grüne Energiequellen kostengünstiger geworden sind, werden wir mit unserem Geld einfach mehr kaufen können als heute. 

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