跨越碳排放的迷思

发自哥本哈根——若论其核心,大部分有关气候变化的争论都与一个分歧巨大而且令人恼火的问题有关:那就是我们究竟该削减多少碳排放量?

但正是这种狭隘而单一的关注方式使得整个争论毫无建设性可言。每一个人都试图阻止全球变暖,但真正的问题在于,如何才能做到最好?我们应该对阻止全球变暖的其他途径持开放性态度——比如应该削减将来而不是当今的碳的排放量,或者把注意力放在减少其他温室气体的排放上。全球变暖将会导致严重的问题产生,因此,削减碳排放能够带来巨大的收益。然而削减碳排放要求人类减少基础能源的使用,而正是这些能源支撑起了整个现代社会的运作,因此削减碳排放也将意味着要付出巨大的代价。

汉堡大学的著名环境经济学家理查德·图尔教授对比分析了立刻削减碳排放量和未来才削减碳排放量两者之间的成本和效益。如果提早实施减排的话,我们将花费17.8兆美元,而推迟减排则仅仅只需花2兆美元。而且如果选择在未来减排的话,对二氧化碳浓度——以及由此导致的气温上升——的缓解效应在2100年时将比立刻减排更为有效。而现在就开始削减碳排放的话成本也会更为高昂,因为替代化石燃料的其它燃料不但品种稀少而且价格昂贵。我们如果用同样的钱,显然是在当绿色能源性价比更佳的时候才能得到更大的效益。

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