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КЕМБРИДЖ. Лидеры G-20, которые насмехаются над предложением Соединенных Штатов установить численный предел торгового баланса, должны знать, что они играют с огнем. США не столько предъявляют требование, сколько делают официальное заявление о необходимости помощи.

В соответствии с недавним совместным докладом Международного валютного фонда и Международной организации труда, 25% роста безработицы с 2007 года, который составил 30 миллионов человек во всем мире, выпадают на долю США. Если такая ситуация сохранится, а я уже давно предупреждал, что так может быть, она будет служить основой для огромных глобальных торговых трений. Гнев избирателей, выраженный в США на промежуточных выборах, может оказаться лишь верхушкой айсберга.

Протекционистские торговые меры, возможно в форме жесткой пошлины США на китайский импорт, могут привести к основательному саморазрушению, даже без неизбежных ответных мер. Однако будьте уверены: с каждым днем основания для популистской экономики становятся все более убедительными.

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