举债豪赌

许多人都在问为何美元还没有崩溃。美国会为十数年以来那一连串巨大的贸易逆差买单吗?加上过往的逆差所产生的利息,仅2006年的账单就超过8000亿美金—约为美国国民生产总值的6.5%。更令人吃惊的是,美国的负债相当于包括中国、日本、德国和欧佩克国家等在内的所有贸易顺差国家储蓄总余额的三分之二强。

外国人在美国的投资罕有丰厚回报。正相反,他们所获得的回报通常比投资国外的美国人所得要低得多。在这个股价和房价疯长的时代,日本和中国的央行正掌握着价值两兆美金的低息债券。其中大部分是美国国库券和抵押贷款。这项对美国纳税人的巨额补贴,在很多方面堪称世界上最大规模的外国援助项目。

如果美国的竞争优势如此虚弱,那么又是什么魔力在支持美元呢?大多数头脑清楚的分析家都一直预测着美元相对其贸易伙伴国货币的稳定贬值趋势,特别是相对于亚洲和新兴市场国家的货币。那么,为什么还没有出现更多的调整呢?

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