Ставка – дом

Домовладельцы по всему миру эффективно играют на стоимости жилья. Сегодня их риск достаточно велик из-за “мыльных пузырей” в области недвижимости в таких привлекательных городах, как Лондон, Париж, Рим, Стамбул, Москва, Шанхай, Гуанчжоу, Сидней, Мельбурн, Ванкувер, Лос-Анджелес, Лас-Вегас, Бостон, Нью-Йорк, Вашингтон и Майами. Эти “мыльные пузыри” могут продолжать раздуваться либо могут лопнуть, оставляя множество домовладельцев под бременем долгов.

Риск в отношении цен на жилье после лопнувшего “мыльного пузыря” реален и значителен. За время последнего цикла банкротств в сфере недвижимости реальные (с поправкой на инфляцию) цены на жилье упали в Лондоне на 46% за 1988–1995 гг., в Лос-Анджелесе на 41% за 1989–1997 гг., в Париже на 43% за 1991–1998 гг., в Москве на 67% за 1993–1997 гг. и в Шанхае на 38% за 1995–1999 гг. Все эти спады в конце концов прекратились, и на всех этих рынках в последнее время бум. Но это не является гарантией того, что будущие спады приведут к тому же результату. Напротив, будущая реальная стоимость нашего жилья совершенно непредсказуема.

Большинство домовладельцев играют в эту азартную игру не ради удовольствия. Они покупают недвижимость просто потому, что им она нужна. Но, поскольку они ничего не предпринимают, чтобы защитить себя от риска, связанного с ценами на недвижимость, то они – игроки поневоле. В действительности покупатели жилья в большинстве стран не предпринимают для самозащиты ничего, – кроме продажи своего жилья, – поскольку и предпринять-то нечего. Рынок связанных с недвижимостью производных инструментов, который может помочь уравновесить этот риск, только-только начинает складываться.

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