Miser sur l’immobilier

Tous les propriétaires de par le monde parient en fait sur le prix de l’immobilier. De nos jours, ils prennent de gros risques ŕ cause des bulles du marché de l’immobilier de certaines villes telles que Londres, Paris, Madrid, Rome, Istanbul, Moscou, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Sydney, Melbourne, Vancouver, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Boston, New York, Washington D.C. et Miami. Ces bulles peuvent progresser ou éclater, laissant de nombreux propriétaires couverts de dettes.

Les risques encourus en matičre de prix de l’immobilier ŕ la suite d’une bulle sont réels et considérables. Lors du dernier cycle d’effondrements dans l’immobilier, les prix réels (données corrigées pour prendre en compte l’inflation) de l’immobilier ont chuté de 46 % ŕ Londres entre 1988 et 1995, 41 % ŕ Los Angeles entre 1989 et 1997, 43 % ŕ Paris entre 1991 et 98, 67 % ŕ Moscou entre 1993 et 19997 et 38 % ŕ Shanghai entre 1995 et 1999. Toutes ces chutes furent finalement renversées et tous ces marchés ont récemment connu une forte expansion. Cela ne garantit aucunement cependant que les futures chutes produisent des résultats similaires. Au contraire, la valeur réelle de nos habitations ŕ l'avenir reste fondamentalement incertaine.

La plupart des propriétaires ne prennent pas ces risques avec grand plaisir. Ils ne font qu’acheter dans l’immobilier car ils en ont besoin. Ils ne font pourtant rien pour se protéger contre les risques du marché de l’immobilier et deviennent de ce fait les acteurs involontaires de ce marché. En fait, dans la plupart des pays, les acheteurs ne font rien pour se protéger, mis ŕ part vendre leur bien, parce qu’il n’y a rien ŕ faire. Le marché d'instruments financiers dérivés qui pourrait permettre d'équilibrer ces risques est en cours de création.

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