下注房产

全世界的私房拥有者都乐此不疲地加入到房价的赌博当中。由于伦敦、巴黎、马德里、罗马、伊斯坦布尔、莫斯科、上海、杭州、悉尼、墨尔本、温哥华、洛杉矶、拉斯维加斯、波士顿、纽约、华盛顿特区和迈阿密等魅力都市都存在房地产泡沫,所以这场赌博的风险很大。

经历了泡沫之后的房价风险是实实在在的。在上一轮的房地产泡沫破裂之后,伦敦的实际房价(折算通胀后的)在1988-95年间下跌了46%,洛杉矶在1989-97年间下跌了41%,巴黎在1991-98年间房价跌幅为43%,莫斯科在1993-97年间跌幅为67%,上海在1995-99年间的跌幅为38%。所有的下跌最终都有所反弹,而最近房地产市场在上述地区又进入了繁荣期。但这并不能保证未来的房价下跌会带来同样的后果。相反,从根本上讲,我们房产的未来真正价值还是未知数。

大多数的私房拥有者参与房价赌博并不是为了娱乐。他们购置不动产时出于实际的需要。然而,由于他们没有采取任何防范不动产价格风险的措施来保护自己,因而他们又是不自知的赌博者。实际上,大多数国家的购房者都没有采取任何的自我保护措施—除了出售他们的房产以外—因为他们无计可施。能够平衡这些风险的不动产衍生品市场也仅仅是雏形初现。

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