Lieber rot als tot?

Wird der unaufhaltbare Anstieg der Kosten im Gesundheitswesen überall auf der Welt eines Tages eine wichtige Herausforderung für den Kapitalismus unserer Tage darstellen? Ich möchte zur Diskussion stellen, dass in nicht allzu ferner Zukunft die moralische, gesellschaftliche und politische Unterstützung für das kapitalistische System auf eine ernste Probe gestellt werden wird, da die vermeintlich egalitären Gesundheitssysteme sich mit immer weiter steigenden Kosten konfrontiert sehen.

Steigende Einkommen, alternde Bevölkerungen und neue Technologien zur Verlängerung der Lebensdauer und zur Verbesserung der Lebensqualität haben dazu geführt, dass die Kosten im Gesundheitswesen in den USA bereits seit einigen Jahrzehnten um 3,5% schneller steigen als die Einkommen insgesamt. Einige führende Ökonomen gehen davon aus, dass die gesundheitlichen Ausgaben, die schon heute einen Anteil von 16% der US-Volkswirtschaft ausmachen, bis 2030 auf 30% vom BIP ansteigen und sich im weiteren Verlauf des Jahrhunderts möglicherweise 50% annähern werden. In anderen Ländern mit hohem bis mittlerem Einkommen – auch wenn sie heute in der Regel nur halb so viel ausgeben wie die USA – wird es kaum weniger sein.

In Europa und anderswo haben die Länder ihre Bürger vor einem Teil dieses Kostenanstiegs geschützt, indem sie sich an den technologischen Fortschritt in Amerika angehängt haben. Ultimativ jedoch werden sie mit demselben ansteigenden Kostendruck konfrontiert.

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