Bernanke entschlüsseln

CAMBRIDGE – Der Vorsitzende der US-Zentralbank Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, hat seit seiner Aussage vor dem US-Kongress vom 22. Mai Mühe, eine klare Aussage zur Zukunft der Fed-Politik zu treffen. Zwei Monate später ist den Akteuren der Finanzmärkte immer noch unklar, was seine Botschaft für die Richtung der US-Geldpolitik und der Zinssätze bedeutet.

Bernankes formale Aussagen über die zwei unkonventionellen Maßnahmen der Fed waren klar: Erstens versucht die Fed, ziemlich genaue Leitlinien zur zukünftigen Entwicklung der Federal Funds Rate zu geben (der Übernachtzinsen, zu denen sich Geschäftsbanken untereinander Geld leihen). Zweitens deutet die Fed die Bedingungen dafür an, ihre massiven monatlichen Anleihenrückkaufprogramme zu verringern und schließlich zu beenden. Bernanke hat betont, diese beiden Maßnahmen seien getrennt voneinander zu betrachten und von unterschiedlichen Indikatoren der Wirtschaftsleistung abhängig.

Der Offenmarktausschuss, der aus den Fed-Gouverneuren und den Präsidenten der regionalen Notenbanken besteht, hat sich geeinigt, dass der Leitzins nahe Null bleibt, bis die Arbeitslosenquote dauerhaft auf 6,5% sinkt oder gar weiter fällt. Angesichts einer momentanen Arbeitslosigkeit von 7,6% und nur einem leichten Rückgang könnte die Fed die Leitzinsen möglicherweise erst 2015 erhöhen.

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