解码伯南克

美国剑桥—自5月22日在美国国会听证以来,美联储主席本·伯南克一直在设法给出关于美联储未来政策的明确信号。事实上,时隔两个月,金融市场参与者仍然不明白他的信号对美国货币政和方向市场利率意味着什么。

伯南克关于美联储两大非常规政策的正式说辞是明确的。首先,美联储试图给出关于联邦基金利率(商业银行同业拆借隔夜利率)未来路径的相对具体的指导。其次,美联储暗示了使其开始收缩月度债券购买计划规模并最终停止该计划的条件。伯南克强调,这两大政策轨迹互相独立,响应经济表现的不同指标。

由美联储高级官员和地区联邦储备银行行长组成的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)一致认为,联邦基金利率将维持在目前的近零水平直至失业率下降至6.5%并且可预期继续下降。目前失业率为7.6%,且下降缓慢,因此美联储可能不会在2015年之前提高联邦基金利率。

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