O dilema nuclear do Irão

LOS ANGELES – Quando os Estados Unidos e seus aliados retomarem as negociações sobre o programa nuclear do Irão, nos dias 7 e 8 de Novembro, a tarefa incómoda de arquitectar a recente proposta do Irão num acordo duradouro irá começar a sério. Existem muitos obstáculos para um acordo, mas entre os menos examinados está o legado de esforços de desarmamento nuclear que envolve a Líbia e a Coreia do Norte. Ambos os casos levantam questões que nem o Irão nem os EUA querem ver repetidas - mas que ambos terão dificuldade em evitar.

Para os EUA, a Coreia do Norte mostra como um país pobre, mas ambicioso, desenvolveu a bomba através de jogos de conversações e de manobras para ganhar tempo. Para o Irão, o abandono das armas de destruição em massa da Líbia, em 2003, por parte de Muammar Khadafi, demonstra como um regime, ainda considerado um bête noire pela comunidade internacional mesmo depois da normalização das relações diplomáticas, provavelmente abdicou da sua sobrevivência em 2011, ao abandonar a oportunidade de construir uma forma de dissuasão nuclear. Estudar mais intensamente cada caso ilumina os desafios enfrentados pelo Irão e pelos seus interlocutores internacionais.

O que torna o precedente da Coreia do Norte particularmente preocupante é até que ponto o Irão imitou o regime em Pyongyang. Isto, naturalmente, levanta questões sobre se o Irão está a utilizar a actual ronda de negociações como uma fachada de um esforço contínuo para desenvolver armas nucleares.

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