伊朗的核困境

洛杉矶—11月7日和8日,美国及其盟友重新开启了关于伊朗核计划的对话,认真地开始完成将伊朗最新的提议落实为永久性协议的艰巨任务。通往协议之路障碍甚多,但被人们研究最少的是利比亚和朝鲜去核努力的后果。这两个国家所出现的问题是伊朗和美国都不愿意重复的,但要避免也绝非易事。

对美国来说,朝鲜显示了一个野心勃勃的穷国是如何通过玩弄对话把戏、争取时间开发核弹的。对伊朗来说,2003年卡扎菲交出利比亚大规模杀伤性武器表明,一个政权在外交关系正常化后仍然会被国际社会视为不受欢迎者,卡扎菲之所以在2011年被推翻,很大程度上是因为他放弃了建立核威慑的机会。深入挖掘这两个例子就可以发现伊朗及其国际对话者所面临的的挑战。

让朝鲜先例变得特别棘手的是伊朗在多大程度上模仿着平壤政权。这自然而然的衍生出一个问题:伊朗是否在利用当前谈判回合为掩护继续开发核武器。

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