贝娜齐尔·布托的赌博

随着针对巴基斯坦反对派领袖贝娜齐尔·布托的恐怖袭击所导致的最初的震动逐渐褪去,目前的事态已明确显示出这次袭击对她来讲是一场政治恩惠,因为袭击在布托传统的信德省大本营之外引发了大范围公众同情的热潮。但是尽管如此,布托却感到把这种变化了的公众情绪转化为政治支持还有很大的难度。
布托是巴基斯坦人民党的领袖,流亡归来后迫切需要获得一切可能的支持。她所做出的与巴基斯坦不受欢迎的军事统治者佩尔韦兹·穆沙拉夫联盟的决策继续损害着她所提出的成为民主恢复者和街头战士的主张。这笔交易使穆沙拉夫获得了更大的合法性,而后者将拿出他所垄断的部分权力与布托分享。但布托和穆沙拉夫之间既没有友爱更没有共同政策作为基础。
从理论上看,针对布托的自杀性袭击会把双方拉得更近。毕竟,伊斯兰好战分子曾经不止一次地试图行刺穆沙拉夫。但事实却恰恰相反,布托对穆沙拉夫所在党派——巴基斯坦穆斯林联盟的成员提出指控,指责他们和穆沙拉夫政府一道参与了对她的袭击。“事实是无论联邦部长伊贾兹·哈克还是穆斯林联盟总裁乔杜里·舒贾特·侯赛因都从来没有遭到过自杀性爆炸的袭击,”她说。而舒贾特也半开玩笑地把布托称为恐怖分子。穆沙拉夫也对她这样的声明公开表示谴责。
布托和穆沙拉夫暗中约定,在1月大选结束前,要继续保持巴基斯坦另一位民主领袖纳瓦兹·谢里夫在沙特阿拉伯的流亡状态。但以这种方式操纵选举结果使布托受到更大的损害,因为这样做再次证明了她不过是军事政权的伙伴和附庸,而谢里夫才是真正的民主领袖。这也再次凸显了她远离穆沙拉夫的必要性。
几乎所有人都同意他们的合作与其说是政治联盟还不如说是一种暂时的妥协。美国是促成这种妥协的主要因素,因为在美国看来,有必要为打赢与新塔利班团体的短期战争而让军事政权继续执政。但是,美国也相信长远来看为伊斯兰原教旨主义重新赢得公众的支持需要建立合法的民主政府。每当民主党派在政治上停滞不前时,伊斯兰党派总能从选举之中渔翁得利。
美国希望能充分利用这两大党派自身的优势。但这样做却冒着发挥双方劣势的危险:一个失去合法性的平民领袖,再加上一个实力衰弱的军事领袖,根本无法与实际控制阿富汗附近种族地区的伊斯兰好战分子进行对抗。
与此相似,布托在打穆沙拉夫牌的同时仍然保持公众支持的能力也十分脆弱。8月国际共和学会的一次民意调查显示:47%的巴基斯坦选民支持布托与穆沙拉夫结成联盟,而有37%的选民对此持反对态度。值得注意的是,布托所在的党派内部有近三分之一的人反对这样的联盟。

穆沙拉夫不久前再次当选总统的闹剧或许影响了公众对布托的支持。而恐怖袭击和她所做出的反应——攻击穆沙拉夫所在党派,到医院看望伤员并主动要求承担医疗费用——也许挽回了一部分损失。但现在的问题是:她能这样保持下去吗?


布托的忧虑之一是司法系统的态度,因为司法系统对穆沙拉夫没有任何好感。但他们在穆沙拉夫再次当选的问题上沉默的态度似乎确认了法官与将军们达成妥协的谣言。未知因素是巴基斯坦国家和事实上建立了独立国家——即横跨巴基斯坦阿富汗边境的所谓基地国家的伊斯兰好战分子之间越来越残酷的战争。

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