Vivere alle spalle dell'economia mondiale

CHICAGO – I capitali globali sono in movimento. Da quando il quasi azzeramento dei tassi d'interesse nei paesi sviluppati spinge i capitali ad andare in giro per il mondo alla ricerca di maggiori ritorni, molte banche centrali dei mercati emergenti stanno intervenendo pesantemente, comprando i capitali arrivati dall'estero e riesportandoli in modo da impedire alle loro valute di apprezzarsi. Altri paesi stanno imponendo controlli sui flussi di capitale in un modo o nell'altro. In queste settimane, il Giappone è diventato il primo grande paese industrializzato a intervenire direttamente sul mercato valutario.

Perché nessuno vuole che i capitali fluiscano verso il proprio mercato? Quali interventi pubblici sono legittimi e quali no? E dove ci porterà tutto questo intervenzionismo se non lo si tiene a bada?

La porzione di capitale che non viene riesportata rappresenta l'afflusso netto di capitale. Questo finanzia la spesa domestica in beni esteri. Quindi, una ragione per cui ai paesi non piace ricevere capitali è che questi implicano più “fuoriuscite” di domanda interna. Di fatto, dal momento che l'afflusso di capitali spesso causa un apprezzamento del tasso di cambio, l'aumento della spesa in beni esteri è spinta anche dalla minore competitività dei beni prodotti all'interno del proprio mercato.

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