Weltwirtschaft nach dem Sankt-Florians-Prinzip

CHICAGO – Das globale Kapital ist in Bewegung. Da ultraniedrige Zinsen in den Industrieländern das Kapital weltweit auf die Suche nach höheren Erträgen schicken, kommt es zu massiven Interventionen einer Reihe von Zentralbanken in Schwellenmärkten. Sie kaufen Kapitalzuflüsse aus dem Ausland auf und exportieren sie wieder, um eine Aufwertung ihrer eigenen Währungen zu verhindern. Andere haben Kapitalkontrollen in der einen oder anderen Form eingeführt. In den letzten Wochen intervenierte Japan als erstes großes Industrieland direkt auf den Devisenmärkten.

Warum sind diese Kapitalzuflüsse nicht erwünscht? Welche Interventionen sind legitim und welche nicht? Und wo werden all diese Interventionen hinführen, wenn sie unvermindert andauern?  

Bei jenem Teil der Kapitalzuflüsse, der nicht wieder exportiert wird, handelt es sich um Nettokapitalzuflüsse. Damit werden im Inland Ausgaben für ausländische Güter finanziert. Ein Grund, warum Länder also keine Freude mit Kapitalzuflüssen haben ist, dass damit mehr Binnennachfrage nach außen „sickert“.  Weil diese Kapitalzuflüsse oftmals eine Aufwertung der nationalen Währung verursachen, werden damit weitere Ausgaben für ausländische Güter gefördert, da einheimische Produzenten wettbewerbsunfähig werden.

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