Clochardiser l’économie mondiale

CHICAGO – Le capital global circule. Compte tenu de taux d’intérêt extrêmement faibles dans les pays industrialisés, le capital se déplace un peu partout dans le monde en quête de meilleurs rendements ; en conséquence, un certain nombre de banques centrales de pays émergeants interviennent lourdement, rachetant les afflux de capitaux étrangers et les réexportant de façon à éviter une érosion de leur monnaie. D’autres ont imposé des contrôles de capitaux sous différentes formes. Le Japon a même été la première grande économie industrielle ces dernières semaines à intervenir directement sur les marchés des devises.

Pourquoi personne ne veut de l’affluence des capitaux ? Quelles sont les politiques d’intervention légitimes et celles qui ne le sont pas ? Et où nous mènerons toutes ses interventions si elles sont maintenues sans relâche ?

La part des afflux de capitaux qui n’est pas réexportée représente des afflux nets de capitaux. Cela permet de financer l’achat national de produits étrangers. Donc, l’une des raisons pour lesquelles les pays n’aiment pas les affluences de capitaux est qu’ils impliquent plus de ‘fuites’ de la demande intérieure vers l’extérieur. Dans la mesure où les afflux de capitaux provoquent souvent une dévalorisation du taux de change national, ils encouragent les dépenses sur les biens étrangers puisque les producteurs nationaux deviennent moins compétitifs.

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