Обменные курсы по принципу «сделай соседа нищим»?

ЖЕНЕВА. Швейцарский национальный банк (SNB), недавно понизивший свою процентную ставку до 0,25%, заявил, что начинает программу «количественного смягчения» вслед за аналогичными шагами, предпринятыми Федеральным резервным фондом США и Банком Англии. Ещё более удивительным было одновременное заявление о том, что банк начинает вмешательство на рынке иностранных валют с целью повернуть вспять повышение курса швейцарского франка. Станет ли это первым залпом войны конкурентных девальваций?

В Швейцарии процентные ставки традиционно низки. Как и большинство других центральных банков, столкнувшихся с экономическим спадом, SNB сократил свою процентную ставку до нулевой нижней границы. В данной ситуации традиционная кредитно-денежная политика становится бессильной, поскольку процентная ставка больше не используется как её инструмент.

Поэтому центральные банки находятся сегодня в поиске новых инструментов. «Количественное смягчение» - одна из подобных попыток. Пока неизвестно, сможет ли оно хоть в некоторой степени эффективно восстановить возможности влияния кредитно-денежной политики на ситуацию. Однако мало кто упоминает об одном важном аспекте: в небольших, экономически открытых странах (определение, подходящее практически ко всем странам, за исключением США) главным каналом кредитно-денежной политики является обменный курс.

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