人民币跳水?

伯克利—12月,美联储开始逐渐减少其月度长期资产购买量,此后新兴市场货币普遍出现了贬值。此前,最显著的例外一直是坚挺无比的人民币。但如今人民币也开始对美元贬值。这是美联储政策破坏效应的又一例证吗?

人民币贬值幅度不大,是否会继续贬值也不一定。但考虑到人民币依然是受严格管制的货币,这一趋势令人吃惊。并且其运动方向与所有人的预期都相反。

毫无疑问,美联储逐渐退出其量化宽松政策产生了一些效果。能进入中国金融市场的投资者的一个典型赚钱策略是借入低息美元,买入高收益中国资产。但逐渐退出政策提高了美国的利率,从增加了借入美元、投资中国资产的成本。随着“套息交易”逐渐失宠,人民币需求下降,其汇率也出现了贬值。

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