Um réquiem para os desequilíbrios globais

BERKELEY – O início de 2014 marca o período de 10 anos, desde que começámos a nos preocupar com os desequilíbrios globais e, especificamente, com os desequilíbrios crónicos comerciais e das transacções correntes dos Estados Unidos e da China. Uma década mais tarde, podemos declarar alegremente que a era dos desequilíbrios globais terminou. Então agora é altura de tirar as lições certas desse período.

 O défice da balança de transacções correntes  da América, que representava uns alarmantes 5,8% do PIB no recente ano de 2006, diminuiu agora para apenas 2,7% do PIB - um nível que os EUA podem facilmente financiar a partir das suas receitas de royalties e de retornos em investimentos estrangeiros anteriores, sem incorrer em dívida externa adicional. Ainda mais impressionante, o superávit da conta-corrente da China, que atingiu uns extraordinários 10% do PIB em 2007, está agora apenas nos 2,5% do rendimento nacional.

Ainda existem alguns países com grandes excedentes e défices incómodos. A Alemanha e a Turquia destacam-se. Mas o superávit da Alemanha de 6% do PIB é principalmente um problema para a Europa, enquanto os 7,4% do défice da Turquia são principalmente um problema para a Turquia. Por outras palavras, os seus problemas não são globais.

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