Le requiem des déséquilibres globaux

BERKELEY – En ce début d’année 2014, cela fera dix ans que nous avons commencé à nous inquiéter d’un certain nombre d’asymétries globales, et notamment des déséquilibres commerciaux et déséquilibres de balance courante chroniques entre les États-Unis et la Chine. Une décennie plus tard, nous pouvons affirmer avec joie que l’ère des déséquilibres globaux est aujourd’hui terminée. Il convient désormais de tirer les bons enseignements de cette période.

Le déficit de la balance courante de l’Amérique, qui atteignait encore en 2006 un niveau alarmant de 5,8% du PIB, s’est considérablement réduit pour s’élever désormais à seulement 2,7% du PIB – un pourcentage que les États-Unis peuvent aisément financer grâce aux revenus des redevances et aux retours sur investissements étrangers antérieurs, sans avoir à contracter une dette étrangère supplémentaire. Mais plus impressionnant encore, l’excédent de la balance courante chinoise, qui atteignait un niveau extraordinaire de 10% du PIB en 2007, ne représente aujourd’hui qu’à peine 2,5% du revenu national.

Un certain nombre d’États présentent encore aujourd’hui d’inquiétants et importants excédents ou déficits. L’Allemagne et la Turquie se distinguent en la matière. Pour autant, l’excédent allemand de 6% du PIB constitue davantage un problème pour l’Europe, et le déficit turc de 7,4% principalement un problème pour la seule Turquie. Autrement dit, il ne s’agit pas ici de problématiques globales.

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