全球失衡安魂曲

伯克利—2014年是我们开始担心全球失衡问题,特别是美国和中国之间长期存在的贸易和经常项目失衡的第十个年头。十年后,我们可以愉快地宣布,全球失衡结束了。因此,现在应该从这段时间吸取正确的教训。

2006年,美国经常项目赤字达到了令人警惕的GDP的5.8%,如今这一数字下降至GDP的2.7%——美国可以轻松地用版税收入和先期对外投资回报来弥补这一赤字,而不会增加新的外债。

仍有一些国家存在令人担忧的巨大盈余或赤字。尤其是德国和土耳其。但德国相当于GDP的6%的盈余大体上是一个欧洲问题,而土耳其相当于GDP的7.4%的赤字大体上是土耳其的问题。换句话说,它们都不是全球问题。

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