Bancar nos BRICS

BERKELEY – Para os líderes dos BRICS (Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul), o anúncio em Julho do seu acordo para o estabelecimento de um “Novo Banco para o Desenvolvimento” (NBD) e de um “Acordo sobre Reserva de Contingência” (ARC) foi um golpe de relações públicas. A oportunidade para uma foto triunfal de grupo foi especialmente bem-vinda para a Presidente Brasileira Dilma Rousseff, à luz da derrota ignominiosa no Campeonato Mundial e da economia em abrandamento do seu país, e para o Presidente da Rússia, Vladimir Putin, dada a reacção internacional contra o apoio prestado pelo seu governo aos rebeldes da Ucrânia.

O acordo foi também uma oportunidade para os cinco países reiterarem a sua insatisfação com o Banco Mundial, o Fundo Monetário Internacional, e o papel do dólar no sistema monetário global. Os BRICS possuem apenas 11% dos votos no FMI, apesar de serem responsáveis por mais de 20% da actividade económica global. O Congresso dos EUA recusa ratificar o acordo alcançado em 2010 para corrigir este distorcido estado de coisas. E os Estados Unidos não mostraram qualquer vontade em renunciar ao seu privilégio anacrónico de nomear o presidente do Banco Mundial.

Entretanto, a parte do dólar nas reservas globais de moeda estrangeira permanece acima dos 60%, enquanto 85% das transacções globais em moeda estrangeira envolvem dólares. Dada a relutância dos países sub-representados em inscreverem-se nas linhas de crédito preventivas do FMI, os bancos centrais desesperados por dólares apenas podem obtê-los junto da Reserva Federal. O Fed foi razoavelmente previdente ao permitir trocas de dólares na última crise em 2008; mas não existem garantias de que se comportará do mesmo modo no futuro.

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