依赖金砖五国

伯克利——对金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)领导人而言,7月份创立“全新开发银行”(NDB)和“应急储备安排”(CRA)的公告不啻于一场公关政变。巴西总统迪尔玛•罗塞夫因巴西在世界杯上不光彩的失败和国内经济低迷而特别欢迎这样有凯旋意味的合影机会,鉴于俄政府支持乌克兰叛军所引发的国际反应,俄罗斯总统普京也特别需要这样的事件。

这份协议也给了金砖五国重申不满世界银行、国际货币基金组织和美元在全球货币体系中所扮演角色的机会。金砖国家仅握有国际货币基金11%的投票权,却占据全球经济活动的20%以上。美国会拒绝批准2010年达成的协议,纠正这种失衡的状态。同时美国也不愿放弃任命世行总裁的过时权限。

此外,美元在全球外汇储备中所占的份额仍然超过60%。而超过85%的全球外汇交易都要用到美元。鉴于代表名额不足的国家不愿签署IMF的预防性信贷额度,央行急需美元时只能从美联储申请贷款。美联储在2008年危机中对提供美元互换基本持合作态度;但未来是否仍会如此谁也不知道。

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