Paul Lachine

Баррели, бушели и облигации

КЕМБРИДЖ. В последнее время цены на углеводороды, минералы и сельскохозяйственные товары так сильно «скачут», будто бы катаются на «американских горках». Хотя цены на сырьевые товары всегда более изменчивы, чем цены на готовые товары и услуги, на рынке сырьевых товаров в течение последних пяти лет наблюдается исключительная, практически беспрецедентная изменчивость.

Страны, специализирующиеся на экспорте нефти, меди, железной руды, пшеницы, кофе и других сырьевых товаров процветают, но они сильно уязвимы. Цены на сырьевые товары в долларах могут сильно упасть в любое время в результате нового экономического спада, роста реальных процентных ставок в США, колебаний климата или случайных причин той или иной отрасли.

Особенно уязвимыми являются страны, имеющие непогашенные долги в долларах или в других иностранных валютах. Если их доходы от экспорта сильно упадут по сравнению с их обязательствами по погашению долгов, в результате их может ожидать кризис, напоминающий кризис в Латинской Америке 1982 г. или валютный кризис в Азии и России 1997-1998 гг.

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